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Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间期价继续中阴K线下跌,期价在跌破60天均线的支撑后,短线角度的下探寻支撑走势延续中,我们继续保持短空思维对待,但下方的空间正在逐步收窄,我们继续关注下方回落空间大小, 稍有风吹草动,内盘 马盘油脂商品锁仓空单可考虑逢低平仓离场。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周一盘面中阳K线低开高走上涨表现,期价略微止跌,但反身信号还不够明确。今天周二盘面期价高开低走——说明内盘油脂短线仍未完全止跌,仅仅表明期价在震荡中筑短线小底意图显露(豆油4天横盘),在没有更明确反身信号之前,继续多空仓单对锁。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),上周五一根长阴K线暴跌,昨日周一又一根高开高走的长阳K线暴涨——–马棕榈在剧烈情绪波动中期价宽幅震荡,昨日周一的盘面表现是对周五严重下挫的一种“报复性修复”动作(阳包阴), 今天周二早盘,期价又低开十字星表现——-未能延续昨日的长阳上涨,说明马盘棕榈油短线拒绝深幅下跌,但却又无力独自反身上行,马棕榈短线暂时在这种复杂心情下波动徘徊。

小结: 美盘豆油下探回落行情延续中,短线走势基本符合我们的心理预期,继续关注下方技术支撑点的探明动作何时发出信号。 内盘马盘油脂商品昨日出现情绪上的“异动”,特别是马盘棕榈油—— 一根长阳吞没长阴,但今天未能得到延续,但这根长阳K线的出现,间接提醒我们散户朋友,短线空单平仓离场操作已经不远, 这点要引起我们思想上的提前注意。 具体操作上:前期多空对锁仓单继续持有,遇盘中急跌时候开始考虑空单离场的思想准备了,在本周内我们将会执行此操作。

• The rout continued in U.S. soybean oil, no sign of recovery soon.
• Malaysia palm oil ended with a long white engulfing candle, but failed to maintain the rally.
• The long white engulfing candle in Malaysia palm oil signalled the rout may end soon.

• Traders may maintain current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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