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Global Vegoils Analysis – 31 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油12月合约,从本月16日上冲前高未果后,出现了短线下挫走势,当期价又下破了60天均线的支撑之后,期价出现下跌加速迹象—–从10月16日开始运行到今天是第十二个交易日的下探走势(一般情况下一波短线小行情大概就会在第13天左右发生变盘若13不发生则会延长到21天),下方的唯一技术支撑点在9月19日的“前低”位置, 是否会100%回撤到前低,目前答案尚不明确。。。昨日周二晚间,美豆油带下影线小阳K线表现,是否会演变成“早晨之星”的反身信号,有待今天晚间美豆油的后续表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周二中阴K线下跌,期价追随美盘豆油继续走软。今天周三盘面小阳十字星表现,考虑到本波下挫走势已经持续时间不短,下方的回落空间正在逐步收窄,空单减持操作—–开可以始 纳入我们思维当中来。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),本周一时候 一根长阳K线暴涨,期价吞没上周五的阴K线,但昨日周二的期价再度跳到长阳K线右侧中间部位,未能延续周一的上行,说明马盘棕榈油有反抗情绪,但该情绪动能尚不能完全扭转短线下跌的局面。。。今天周三早盘,期价再度小阴K线走低,说明马盘棕榈油短线角度的下挫走势仍在延续中,但期价下跌幅度收窄(出现右侧横盘迹象)。

小结:美盘豆油短线下挫走势延续中,仍然未出现明显的止跌信号, 内盘马盘油脂商品上虽然出现了多头“抵抗性”小动作,但尚不能完全扭转当前疲软局面。。。。但是考虑到本波短线下跌已经运行不短时间,后市下方的回落空间我们已经不看很深,所以操作心态上我们也需要保持谨慎。具体操作上: 稳健型交易者前期多空锁仓持有的仓单继续持有,部分激进型交易者可以考虑锁仓时候多出的那部分空单逢低略微减一点点,继续关注美豆油今天晚上的具体表现。

• The rout continued in U.S. soybean oil, no sign of recovery soon.
• China and Malaysia palm oil retesting support levels.

• Focus on performance of U.S. soybean oil tonight.
• Conservative traders may maintain current positions.
• Aggressive traders may reduce small amount of short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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