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Global Vegoils Analysis – 4 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.4.4日周三中国大陆传统节日“清明节”来临

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周二晚间中阳K线红盘上涨, 这已经是从3月27日连续5天红盘上冲表现,当前期价反弹到日K线图表上60天均线处(日均线系统为空头排列), 美豆油短线走势来到关键技术位——60天均线,此前期价屡次在该位置反弹受阻,让我们观察此次能否上冲过去,仅从当前美盘豆油的短线反弹动能来说,仍具备上冲能量。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805合约(1809主力合约),今天周三早盘期价高开高走不予红盘表现,期价延续反弹上行态势(豆油仍强于棕榈油)。昨日我们提到过昨天周二阳K线右上角的小阴K线可以不予理会,今天豆油1805再度发力上涨,棕榈油1805为两阳夹一阴的 冲天炮雏形,对于内盘油脂继续短多观点看待。 明天4月5日为中国传统节日清明节,是中国人扫墓祭拜祖先的日子,内盘将4.5日—-4.8日休假4天,其中包括7号8号为周六 周日(实际是放假周四 周五2天)。前期多单暂时谨慎持有。

马盘毛棕榈油5月(7月持仓最大),昨日周二上午盘面期价尚红盘走高,但下午开盘期价走低, 令昨日的小阴K线下跌幅度增大。今天周三早盘期价瞬间高开,再次夺回昨天失地, 马盘跳跃性情绪化走势盘面表现明显,期价在原箱体下沿2450—2460位置仍争夺徘徊,多空主力纠缠一起谁也不让步,盘面不能给出是突破? 是阻挡? 明确答案,但我们继续以“上破”短多观点谨慎对待。

小结:美盘 马盘油脂商品均靠近技术上关键位置, 上破还是阻挡相信很快市场就会给出答案,恰在这时候,大陆内盘又面临假期,我们暂时短线的谨慎看多观点不变。 具体操作上: 激进型敏感交易者可适当多单逢高减仓一部分,也可持仓不动。 稳健型散户朋友在盘面未发生明显变盘迹象前暂时多单持仓不动。

[SUMMARY]
• US and Malaysia edible oils testing key resistance points.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may close or hold part of their current positions.
• Conservative traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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