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Global Vegoils Analysis – 4 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.12.4日周二中美贸易争端暂缓引发期货市场内外盘走势分化

从阿根廷传来的中美贸易争端消息明朗后,全球大宗商品在商业信心恢复利多情绪下,出现普遍上涨(包括国家原油贵金属黄金白银有色金属铜锌化工商品橡胶类溅金属螺纹钢以及煤炭铁矿石等等。而美盘油豆油1月合约,昨日周一晚间跳空高开上涨 ,终盘以阳十字星收盘,短线反弹走强欲望转强。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,期价横盘不动,继续维持原来波澜不惊态势。而内盘大豆 豆粕期价则出现了长阴K线下跌,中美期货市场短线走势分化明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月(或1月),昨日周一盘面期价跳空高开,但随后盘中震荡走低,终盘以高开低走的长阴K线下跌收盘,马盘棕榈油昙花一现,无果而返。

小结: 中美经贸关系基本面明朗后,引发全球农产品,特别是油脂商品短线走势分化严重——–美盘因重启大豆出口利多心理影响而上涨; 内盘因大批量原材料重新进口恢复担忧情绪而利空走低; 马盘因中国转为进口美国油脂而削弱了马来西亚棕榈油的出口竞争优势而走低。。。。油脂商品短线走势分化,是我们最最不愿看到的局面, 这间接增大了散户朋友分析判断以及操作上的难度。。。。我们暂时以静制动的多观察一下吧,操作上: 原油脂商品仓单持仓不动, 其中部分激进型交易者可今天短多贵金属黄金,以规避油脂市场当前三地的混乱局面,等待全球油脂短线走势一致,以及未来中美关税争端谈判的具体细节执行情况。,谨防出现新变数。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil rallied but China and Malaysia edible oils routed.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.
• Aggressive traders may initiate long positions for gold.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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