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Global Vegoils Analysis – 4 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.7.4日周三美盘公共假期停盘内盘马盘油脂小幅下跌

今天7月4日周三,是美国独立日假期,金融市场停盘一天未交易。 本周7月6日(周五)—–是特朗普宣布的对中国进口商品增加关税的日子(第一步先对来自中国的340亿美元商品增加25%关税)。。。中国方面也早早做还了准备,同样宣布报复性反击来自美国的商品增加关税(也是340亿美元商品征25%关税)。。。。大战一触即发,擦枪走火的可能性越来越强烈!! 美国大豆首当其冲成为第一受害者,近期美盘黄豆连期价连创新低,在巨大利空基本面影响下一蹶不振。美盘豆油12月合约,期价追随美豆抵抗性下挫,盘面表现同样萎靡不振—–美盘油脂商品下行风险正在逐步加剧。。。今天美国公共假期,美盘油脂商品停盘一天。

内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,在连续反弹上行十个交易日后(其中棕榈油是9连阳上涨),今天周三上午盘面期价也出现了小阴K线下跌,多头主力减仓动作较为明显,随着7月6日的临近——-内盘油脂市场风险厌恶情绪正在提升。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,本周一小阳K线表现,昨日周二盘面阴K线下跌,虽然带有下影线,但盘面提前出现走弱迹象。 今天周三早盘,期价继续低开低走,截止上午盘面,期价回落在2300整数关一线——–前期我们早早分析过马盘棕榈,2350一线是该品种的原来箱体下沿位置,当前期期价反抽上行至2348令吉特之后,在箱体下沿技术位置受到阻挡,后市是否存在简单反抽之后的再度下挫? 这点要引起我们在技术层面上的警惕,马盘后市短线走势的不确定性也在增强。

小结: 距离中美贸易战日只有2天时间了,对贸易摩擦担忧情绪接近极点——–全球金融市场风险担忧情绪升温,大宗商品期货市场同样忧心忡忡,对我们所关心的油脂商品来说,内盘 马盘油脂商品上的前期短线多头主力正在悄悄调整仓位(多单减仓),以规避本周末万一爆发的市场风险, 对于这一观点,我们早在上周末时候就提醒过大家,当前市场主力的减仓行为在意料之中。 昨日周二,我们已经建议散户朋友多单减仓(坚决不单向重仓),特别是马盘棕榈油8月合约多单更是要全部平仓出局(交割前月)——-我们的中心思想就是,在重大事件前,规避风险为第一位,盈利与否放在第二位。。。。后市中美贸易摩擦升级的可能性,从双方的态度 决心 出发点分析—-我个人认为爆发贸易摩擦成为大概率事件。。。因此,我们散户朋友不能在两大国间爆发战争中充当炮灰,暂时出场规避一下为上策。

[SUMMARY]
• China and Malaysia edible oil continued downward trends amid intensified trade war.

[ACTION]
• Malaysian and China edible oils traders are recommended to close current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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