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Global Vegoils Analysis – 4 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.6.4日周一油脂类商品短线强势整理

据新华社刚刚发布的中方声明,6月2日-3日,刘鹤副总理带领的中方团队和美国商务部长罗斯带领的美方团队,在钓鱼台国宾馆进行了磋商———–双方就落实两国在华盛顿的共识,在农业、能源等多个领域进行了良好沟通,取得了积极的、具体的进展,相关细节有待双方最终确认。 从声明内容分析,虽然相关细节还有待最终确认,但农业和能源,无疑成了破解中美贸易战的突破口。

美盘大豆上周五晚间小阳K线上涨,但今天亚洲电子早盘期价又跳空低开,短线角度的回落整理走势延续中。 美盘豆油7月合约,今天亚洲电子盘十字星表现,期价波动不大,仍徘徊纠结于“正在粘合的均线系统位置”,短线走势依旧模糊,等待美豆油后市方向选择(均线粘合之后,随后必定选择是发散向上?还是发散向下?)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,今天周一上午盘面,期价率先阳K线走高,随后期价上冲后回落——留有上影线。盘面上豆油强棕榈油弱迹象明显,内盘我们继续持有多豆油空棕榈油的跨品种套利仓单。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月(或7月),当前日K线图表上,均线系统也处于“粘合”状态,期价围绕粘合点附近波动震荡,期价呈现无序的阴阳K线整理(在2400—2440范围内波动徘徊),而60天均线平均价格恰好为2420一线。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线出现模糊走势,在前期一波反弹上行之后,期价出现冲高回落,但回落的幅度很窄,仍旧在60天均线附近徘徊,并未下挫远离该位置,盘面特征属于——涨,涨不上去; 跌,跌不下来的尴尬境界,这令短线的操作难度加大。 我们建议以“强势的回落整理观点”对待(之所以说它强势,是因为回落整理下挫无力), 耐心等待后市调整结束后的 逢低接盘多单机会。操作上:稳健型交易者暂时场外观望, 部分激进型短线交易者可适量日内交易—–交易原则是,低开太深做多,高开太高做空,日内平仓了结(纯粹练练盘感与交易敏捷性),短线日内交易保持一个原则:不贪,见好就收。

[SUMMARY]
• Market experienced tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, thus increase trading difficulty.

[ACTION]
• Conservative traders are advised to hold current position.
• Aggressive may perform intraday trading strategy.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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