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Global Vegoils Analysis – 4 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.5.4日周五马盘毛棕榈油下破创新低

美盘豆油7月合约,期价在低位连续2天阳K线表现,盘中上涨虽然不明显,但继续下挫也未发生,短线仍呈下探式整理,继续等待技术性反弹。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周四盘面出现“异动”, 在下午收盘前2小时,期价出现大幅下跌,跌破3月12日与4月17日的低点,期价坠落到2350令吉特的下方,终盘以长阴K线收盘,并且创出2016年8月以来的新低——这与马盘对未来出口担忧情绪加剧密不可分。。。今天马棕榈阴K线右下角小阳表现, 是瞬间假击穿? 还是真正跌破—–尚待多2–3天的盘面观察,谨防“空头陷阱”。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约, 在美盘豆油未发生明显新变化前,内盘豆油期价仍在原位波动震荡,盘面变化不大。 内盘棕榈油受马盘棕榈影响较为严重—–今天周五盘面跳空低开,期价也创出近期新低, 内盘油强棕弱迹象明显,关注今天K线下影线的长度,多单继续持有。

小结:美盘豆油未发生明显期价变化,马盘棕榈油却率先弱势下跌,期价瞬间跌破2350一线(前低的技术支撑),是“不破不立”? 还是永久“下破”————对于马盘棕榈油7月合约的短线走势,我们尚需要多观察几日, 排除出口量降低的担忧情绪,单从技术上分析马盘棕榈油,短线已经处于超卖状态, 我们操作上: 马盘毛棕榈油现在期价下破2350令吉特已经出现X点(20令吉特),下周初密切关注是否能快速收复,我们多单暂时谨慎持有。 内盘油脂追随马盘走弱,但下跌幅度没有马盘猛烈,盘中逢低仍有多头护盘, 让我们把焦点关注到—-马来西亚棕榈油上, 是它单个的个人情绪化行动,还是连美盘豆油也要拖累下来,这需要等待下周市场的表现确认,暂时持仓今天不盲目操作。

[SUMMARY]
• Not much volatility in US soybean oil.
• Malaysia palm oil slipped due lacklustre export data. Based on technical analysis, the market is “oversold”.
• China edible oils fell in tandem with Malaysia palm oil but less severe than expected.

[ACTION]
• Traders are advised to hold current positions

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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