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Global Vegoils Analysis – 5 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


5.2.2018周一金融市场汇率异常波动严重影响大宗商品价格

美盘豆油3月合约,上周五晚间中阴K线下跌,期价追随内盘马盘油脂商品下挫,此前的反弹上行走势在40天均线处受到阻挡后,转身掉头向下开始变得明显起来,但从幅度来说,美盘豆油跌幅小于内盘,呈现出抵抗性下挫。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,内盘油脂本波下挫走势是率先出现苗头的,当前期价已经直奔2017年12月22日的前低而去,并且存在下破前低的可能。对内盘油脂商品来说——当前国内人民币升值强烈,人民币的不断走强,令中国买家购买国外农产品大豆时候人民币更值钱(相同数量人民币能购买到更多大豆),这也是近几日国内大豆期价下跌的主要原因。

马来西亚马币令吉特汇率近期也不断走强,但马来西亚作为棕榈油出口国来说,这并不见得是见好事—–令吉特走强,这会令国外买家购买棕榈油时候显得更昂贵(出售相同数量的棕榈油获得的令吉特兑换起美元,更能多一些,变相冲抵了期价的部分跌幅)。马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,上周一时候,期价还呈现中阳红盘上涨表现,上周三周四假期停盘2天后,上周五开盘后期价也追随内盘油脂商品下跌(多亏停盘2天,下跌幅度小于内盘),当前马棕榈期价临近12月22日前低附近。

小结:美元指数持续不间断的下跌,令其他国家外汇市场汇率也出现异常波动(美元贬值,外围国家变相升值)。这两天美联储女主席耶伦四年任期已满,接任她的是共和党鲍威尔,后期美联储加息政策的持续性引人关注。单从纯技术上来讲,美元指数的持续下挫,存在短线角度的技术反弹要求,我们不再盲目看空美元多少。对油脂大宗商品来说,当前盘面疲软下挫走势已经非常明显,我们在上周建议内盘马盘上部分多单减持,以及空单反手进场“锁仓”操作继续执行,考虑到内盘油脂已经连续5连阴,可遇盘中瞬间急跌时候空单首先平仓,本波短暂下挫之(短线),我们还继续短多看待(中期),同时密切关注短线下挫过程中的下方技术支撑位置。

[SUMMARY]
• Depreciation of US index affected foreign countries’ forex exchange market.
• Federal Reserve rates hike policy is possible in future after takeover by new appointed director.
• US soybean oils showed obvious sign of downtrend in short term.

[ACTION]
• Traders may close position for current position and initiate opposite position of the market trend.
• Traders are advised to close position when the US soybean oil shows sign of plummet.
• Focus on initiating long position in mid-term, and the support position in short terms.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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