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Global Vegoils Analysis – 5 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油5月合约,上周五晚间期价宽幅波动——盘中最高见32.89 离60天均线33.00整数关仅一步之遥, 但上冲无果,终盘收盘于32.27. 长长的上影线表明上方的压力依然较大。。。美豆油今天周一亚洲电子盘为十字星表现,当前局面比较尴尬——暂时处于一个“可上可下”的两难境界。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约——豆油上周五中阳上涨,期价继续拔高意愿强烈。 内盘棕榈油上周五期价中阴K线走低,今天周一盘面期价继续回落走低, 内盘两大品种短线走势出现不同步矛盾现象。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,上周五早盘期价跳空低开,盘中下跌幅度较大—–我们当时还以为马棕榈又开始“耍小孩脾气”, 却原来马棕榈遭遇重大利空来袭。。。上周五,印度政府单方面决定:将棕榈油进口关税从30%上调到44%, 精炼棕榈油进口关税从40%调高到54%。 印度作为棕榈油进口头号大国,其上调进口关税目的是保护本国农户与本国压榨企业, 这激进的上调百分百数字对马来西亚(印度尼西亚)两国最大棕榈油出口国来说却是“当头棒喝”,严重的利空消息直接导致上周五马盘棕榈“疯狂下跌”——从上周五3%以上的下跌幅度来说,马盘棕榈油一根长阴K线,已经吞没了前期反弹上行的利润空间,马盘棕榈油短线率先出现技术走坏苗头,是否能引起全球油脂商品再度走弱?这点要引起我们散户朋友的警惕。

小结:美盘豆油短线反弹上冲未果(出现模糊),内盘豆油拒绝回落延续反弹, 内盘棕榈油追随马盘棕榈油走低, 马盘棕榈油率先期价技术走坏————三地四品种短线走势上出现“分化”,这令短线研判与操作难度大增,这提醒我们需要谨慎态度对待。具体操作上:前期我们建议多单逢高减持后,上周五是建议少量部分多单逢低接盘—–本周一目前来看, 由于马盘棕榈油出现技术走坏苗头(已经演变的不是简单的小幅回落整理 )由于上周五下跌的幅度超出我们想象(阴包阳的长阴K线),直接让我们怀疑存现下破2018年1月19日2439前低的可能, 原本我们计划本周初再部分多单接盘,目前这一计划暂时取消,多观察一下几个品种的具体走势情况再说。 针对马棕榈来说——若下破前低,不但不能接盘多单,反而应该反手空单进场锁仓(锁住上周五新进的少量多单)。 当前全球油脂商品处境很微妙,走势也很模糊,为防止意外情况发生,让我们思维上谨慎一些, 暂时以静制动多观察一下(观察到底是美盘追随马盘 还是马盘追随美盘 印度方面的利空消息的危害程度 我们暂时难以判断会持续多久)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil failed to rebound.
• China and Malaysia soybean oil went downwards.
• Divergence occurred and harder to trade.

[ACTION]
• Traders may consider to take short-term profit.
• Global market lack certainty, traders are advised to observe market conditions before execute any trading plan.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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