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Global Vegoils Analysis – 6 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油12月合约,从中长期大角度来说—–我们依然保持在低位区域的酝酿反弹低点的大观点不变,但由于更小周期的短线角度,当前油脂略显模糊,在经过10几个交易日的“看似反弹又不太像反弹模糊走势”之后,期价又出现了隐隐下挫态势,中美贸易摩擦“后遗症”悲观情绪仍在市场蔓延, 当前阶段的油脂商品行情比过去任何时候都难做,期价的无序波动震荡成为“主流”。。。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约(或1809合约),前十几个交易日曾出现一波反弹上行走势,但上涨幅度不理想(并且是豆油略强于棕榈油 还有就是内盘 螺纹钢 焦炭 PTA 铁矿石发力上涨过程中 也未带动起内盘油脂更大的做多热情), 当前内盘豆油期价反弹到关键技术位(前高 颈线 60天均线 三层技术位 ),因此心理上不由自主的产生“谨慎”心态,受阻? 突破? 考虑再三—–我们还是保守一些吧,继续多单逢高减持出局为好(特别是9月合约 已经临近交割前月)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,近期盘面走势模糊—–呈现小碎步的“右侧横盘震荡”走势,整体期价变化不大,多空主力围绕在2200令吉特整数关口一线徘徊波动, 盘面上涨无力,下跌也无力,这种短线走势最为让人苦恼 —–就如同当前的高温天气一样,让人昏昏欲睡,打不起精神。

小结:原本指望前期一波中线角度的超跌下挫之后,出现一波技术上的“反弹要求”,只可惜成交量始终未得到放大,市场成交不活跃,造成这波十几个交易日上涨幅度不明显, 最近几天盘面又出现隐隐的上涨乏力 反弹动能衰竭迹象,为预防短线角度的期价再度下挫风险,我们继续建议前期多单依旧逢高减仓,特别是9月合约又进入到交割前月(已经到8月了),更应该提前考虑平仓出局。 操作上:前期多单继续逢高平仓出局,这种“鸡肋”行情参与价值不大。

• Global edible oils rallied, but low trading volume dragged gain.

• Traders may close current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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