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Global Vegoils Analysis – 7 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.12.7日周五内盘豆油情绪化大跌

美盘豆油1月合约,昨日期价阴K线小幅走低,期价反弹到日K线图表60天均线位置,期价开始止步不前,在没有更进一步的中美贸易谈判结果,在没有中国开始进口美国大豆的明确动作前, 美盘豆油出现反弹乏力迹象苗条。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1901(或1905)主力合约,今天周五盘面出现大幅度下跌,空头主力刻意打压——市场传闻中国高层方面可能存在向美国总统特朗普“低头”的嫌疑(存在谈判妥协)。。。内盘棕榈油1901(或1905)主力合约,今天周五中阴K线下跌,跌幅略小于内盘豆油,由于国内当前油脂厂家开工率较高,豆油国内高库存压力较大,而元旦 春节 提前备货市场 还未传导过去,去库存心理压力造成内盘油脂商品出现突然的急跌现象。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或2月),今天周五盘面小阳十字星表现,市场依旧观望气氛较浓,多空主力趋于谨慎,市场交投清淡,盘面上并未追随内盘豆油大幅度走低。

小结: 内外盘短线走势继续分化,各种基本面上的情绪化波动仍然主导着油脂市场的短线走势,当前阶段——多空主力对后市看法分歧较大,对中美具有谈判结果疑虑重重,此时此刻是最为混乱时候,因此难免会出现期价的剧烈异常波动,间接的给我们散户朋友增加了研判难度。。。我们只好继续装傻充愣 继续冷眼旁观,前期油脂多单持仓不动,没有更好办法

[SUMMARY]
• Global markets uncertain towards the outcome from G20 meeting between U.S. and China.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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