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Global Vegoils Analysis – 7 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.02.2018周三美盘豆油昨日晚间突然长阳飙涨2%左右

消息面传闻:美国国会将很快批准以大豆为原材料的生物柴油给予1美元/加仑税收减免政策,突发性的利多情绪瞬间弥漫油脂商品市场—–美黄大豆昨日周二晚间大涨1.7%左右,美豆油3月合约更是长阳飙涨2%左右,期价瞬间临近2月1日的高点附近——美豆油的“一阳指”长阳K线,直接吞没前几日的下跌阴K线,瞬间扭转了前期的疲弱态势,也瞬间打破了我们短线谨慎看空的观点,我们前面提醒过,当前短线角度油脂类商品的多空转换频率较快,盘面上“期价反复”情绪较浓厚。对于昨日晚间的美盘豆油瞬间飙涨的这根阳K线,我们今天开始调转思路,短多恢复观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,受美盘利多情绪上涨带动,今天周三盘面期价追随性走强,前低位置的多单继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,今天周三早盘小幅高开,期价在2500整数关口之下一点点位置运行,尚在吸收消化美盘豆油瞬间带来的利好情绪的真实性,我们建议马盘棕榈油上锁仓空单全部平仓出局。

小结:油脂类商品短线角度横盘波动震荡变化频率较快,虽然盘面容易反复的走势已经心理有所防备,但一些突发性市场情绪还是不能提前掌控——针对美盘豆油昨日晚间的“一阳指”K线“反转”走势,我们以瞬间“扭转”疲弱态势后的短多观点对待。具体操作上:前期低位多单继续持有,前期空单逢低减仓的就减仓了,剩余部分尚未空单平仓的“锁仓”交易者今天早盘空单全部平仓离场,多单“敞口”持有。手中没有仓单的交易者,可适量多单跟进,后市我们以“反身的短多”观点对待。

[SUMMARY]
• Currently, the uncertainty and high volatility in US soybean oil is difficult to trade.
• Advised to focus on short term reversal signal.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are holding any position may continue to maintain or close their current position.
• Traders who are not holding any position may initiate buying position appropriately.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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