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Global Vegoils Analysis – 7 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油7月合约,昨日周三晚间期价继续小阴K线下跌,短线角度的下挫整理走势延续中,盘面上再次考验5月1日的30.15前低正逐步成为可能。 从更长期的中长线角度来分析,自从2015年初开始(在此之前,2011年初到2015年初为一波大的4年下降趋势),美盘豆油就处于一个下降趋势之后的“右侧横盘状态”,期间虽然期价也曾有过波段性上涨,但短暂上涨之后总是期价回落,终于形成了一波为期3年多时间的大区间横盘走势,截止到目前该横盘走势仍在延续中。。。从技术层面来说, 在大区间横盘波动状态下(也称无趋势状态),操作难度是最大的,对散户朋友来说,横盘波动行情最无聊也最难做——唯一最佳操作理念是在30.10—37.50区间内低买高卖为上策,但我们时刻不要忘记一点,这种大横盘状态迟早是要被“打破”的,市场必定会选择一种新的单边独立大行情来演绎后市(风水轮流转 三年河东 三年河西 乐极生悲 否极泰来为市场规律)。。。这是站在长周期角度来说。 对于更小周期的短线角度来说,目前美盘豆油又下挫靠近前低,今天亚洲电子盘期价为30.60, 距离下方30.10一线已经非常接近,我们还是延续老观点—–先以短线操作为主,暂时不奢望单边大行情(只在思维上常常挂念 等真正发生时候 我们好提前进场牢牢把握住)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油 1809主力合约,今天周四盘面追随美盘豆油期价下跌,盘面以小阴K线下跌表现,今天盘面成交清淡,市场在6月5日周二多空主力剧烈厮杀之后,暂时停手喘息一下,市场观望情绪较浓。


小结:全球油脂商品,进过多头主力奋力抵抗之后,盘面疲软态势依旧,短线的下挫整理走势仍在延续中,期价正在考验下方前低的技术支撑,由于距离较近,我们仍未要求空单积极进场,只是建议以短空心态关注下方的回落空间—–时刻准备逢低进多为我们主要思路。具体操作上:无仓交易者场外观望,密切关注后市期价在前低位置的表现,若观察支撑有效——我们将会在下周某天的第一时间多单进场接盘, 密切关注市场的后续表现。。。而部分激进型交易者(急切想做单的)仍可少量空单逢高日内操作。

• Global edible oils resume its retreat despite strong buying pressure.

• Experienced aggressive traders may initiate intraday short position.
• Conservative traders are advised to halt trading and wait for better entry signal.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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