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Global Vegoils Analysis – 7 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.7日周三油脂商品耐心等待基本面消息明朗

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日晚间中阳红盘上涨,期价继续在40天均线下方徘徊震荡,整体期价呈现右侧横盘——盘中没有明显的上行或者下挫的短线方向指引,短线走势相对模糊(可上可下)。。。。明天周四美国农业部将公布三月份供需报告(北京时间周五凌晨1点),等待基本面消息明朗后对市场的指引,然后再追随市场操作。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周三盘面期价阴K线走低,期价回落到下方60天均线位置, 技术上密切关注60天均线的支撑力度,无仓者暂且场外观望。 内盘油脂商品同时需要关注——中美贸易摩擦对农产品的影响后果,若美国对中国铝板 钢材做出贸易制裁,恐中国方面会对美国大豆做出报复举措,谨防影响到油脂类商品价格波动。

马来西亚毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日周二盘面期价小阳K线上涨,今天周三盘中又低开小阴K线走低,整体期价仍在我们预测的—-上周五长阴K线的右下角波动徘徊,市场正在吸收消化上周五印度政府把棕榈油进口关税上调到十年来最高点的利空消息影响。。。马盘棕榈油无仓单散户朋友也暂时场外观望,上周五逢低多单少量接盘的交易者 多单谨慎持有。 基本面方面——- 有消息称:马来西亚最大棕榈油生产厂商飞亚达全球投资控股公司未来将拓展新市场(不单一依靠印度这传统客户),恐将在缅甸 柬埔寨 菲律宾 巴基斯坦等国家兴建棕榈油加工厂,以扩大棕榈油销售(长期角度利多)。同时马来西亚交易所恐将也有新动作,有可能调整棕榈油合约以及多增加精炼棕榈油的交割地点,更多吸引国内外用户参与市场交易(长线利好)。

小结:美盘豆油短线走势不明朗,研判操作难度增加, 当前基本面情况略显复杂,这令我们操作上不得不也需谨慎些。具体操作上:上周五少量接盘多单暂时持有,无仓交易者场外观望,等待美国农业部报告出炉,同时也等待马盘吸收消化印度政府所带来的棕榈油利空情绪影响。 等市场走出明确方向后,我们再追随市场交易,不急于一时。

[SUMMARY]
• Uncertainty in US soybean oil increased trading difficulty.
• Malaysia palm oil market is digesting the impact of import tax raised from India.
• Advised to wait for positive market sentiment.

[ACTION]
• Traders may consider to take short-term profit.
• Global market lack certainty, traders are advised to observe market conditions before execute any trading plan.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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