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Global Vegoils Analysis – 8 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间红盘中阳K线表现,期价下挫中又突然上涨,期价仍在8月1–2日的两根阴K线下挫范围内无序悸动,反弹上涨不叫上涨,反弹结束后的下挫不叫下挫, 这种脉冲的颤动令盘面趋于复杂,但短线上期价再挑战7月31的高度,难度依旧压力重重,对美豆油继续场外观望。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,当前期价上冲过去7月9日的前高位置(也是60天均线位置 还是双底雏形的颈线位置),这个点位原本是我们一直预期的位置,但棕榈油截止到目前仍未冲高7月初的高点, 二者的不同步令我们在研判上“左右为难”, 一个过 一个不过,孰真?孰假? 考虑到这种小碎步上行走势风险较大,万一后市短线突然中阴K线“摔”下来,我们依旧建议多单逢高出局。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,周二下午4—6点时刻期价上冲,终盘时候为中阳K线上涨表现,也许不愿意承担横盘震荡的“弃婴”二字,多头主力增仓发力上拉,尾盘报收于2237令吉特。而2220—-2240为7月12日以来右侧横盘的窄区间上沿位置(下沿为2140 区间波动范围为100令吉特), 后市期价能否继续延续周二的上涨,却依旧是个疑问,多单未平仓干净的散户朋友还是建议逢高平仓离场。

小结: 全球油脂商品无序波动震荡,短线盘面呈现脉冲式颤动,短线走势的持续性不强,虽然在中长线的大周期上,我们依旧以低位区域酝酿反弹观点不变,但短线的反弹衰竭迹象还是有隐隐的苗头,此种情况下,我们依旧建议: 多单未平仓干净的散户继续逢高了结,已经了结完毕的交易者出来场外观望一下.

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils remain volatile.
• Short term showed traces of weak rebound.

[ACTION]
• Traders may close current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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