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Global Vegoils Analysis – 8 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.02.2018周四美盘豆油开“国际玩笑”上蹿下跳

美盘豆油3月合约,前天周二时候长阳K线飙涨,“一阳指”还没高兴一天,这昨日周三晚间又长阴K线暴跌——一阳一阴两根K线像是在给市场投资人士开天大玩笑,怎么涨上去又怎么跌下来,这种反复无常的短线走势,明摆着是在忽悠人。这更加剧了我们短线的研判操作难度(我们昨天刚转为看多,则今天还得转为看空),对于美豆油这种“拉锯式”短线走势,我们表现非常无奈。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,本周连续4天低位阴阳K线横盘(棕榈油是4根阳十字星K线),短线来看,并未受到美盘豆油的严重干扰,呈现出低位多头护盘迹象。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,最近一段时间,马盘棕榈也呈现右侧横盘走势,短线盘面特点是期价波动不大,多空主力交投谨慎,期价呈现窄区间震荡,仍然在“以时间换空间走势”等待更长周期(周线月线)的调整到位,我们的主基调—–仍以短线操作为主。密切关注2017年12月22日与2018年1月19日这2个低点的支撑效力,不技术下破则不必慌张。

小结:美盘豆油反复无常忽左忽右走势如困兽般在布袋里挣扎,严重干扰我们的技术研判,对美豆油昨日晚间的长阴吞没性下跌,我们以谨慎的短空看待,对内盘马盘油脂商品以保守的多头护盘看待。操作上:敞口多单暂时谨慎持有,暂时不盲目操作,以静制动关注美豆油短线走势。

[SUMMARY]
• High volatility in US soybean oil affected the analysis’s precision.
• Maintain current position for soybean oil and wait for reversal signal.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are holding any position may continue to maintain their current position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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