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Global Vegoils Analysis – 8 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油5月合约昨日周三晚间期价中阴K线下跌,由于今天周四晚间有农业部重要报告出炉,盘中多空主力在提前调整仓位,以规避意外风险, 对于美盘豆油我们保持观望态度—–静待消息面明朗后市场具体表现。

陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日周三盘面期价阴K线走软,今天周四上午盘面又继续下跌,短线呈现反弹之后的冲高回落走势,盘中多单减仓动作明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日低开低走的阴K线下跌,期价瞬间触及到前低2440一线。今天周四早盘期价再度跳空低开于2025令吉特,上午盘面在2420—2430窄区间波动震荡(短线继续吸收消化印度政府大幅提高进口关税的利空影响)。 前期报告中我们提到过——马盘棕榈油是率先技术走坏的品种(3月2号上周五的一根长阴K线暴跌 就已经显露走坏苗头),今天周四马盘盘面比较微妙,期价跳空低开后,盘面并未出现明显的“恐慌”情绪——即不见多头恐慌砍仓止损 也不见空头兴奋激动,盘面反而出乎异常的平静, 让我们关注一下期价在2440令吉特之下运行能持续多久(真下破? 假下破? 还是不破不立?)

小结:美国农业部3月份供需报告今日晚间出炉,在消息未明朗前,我们依旧保持以静制动的场外观望观点。 马盘棕榈油短线走势略显疲软,盘面下跌幅度较大,前低位置面临巨大考验,短短几天内马盘连续快速的几个跳空缺口(3个跳空 其中第二个跳空曾被弥补过),短线的杀跌动能得到一定释放,再继续追空也不是最佳对策,让我们进一步等待美国报告出炉对市场的影响。 操作上: 无仓散户朋友场外观望, 前期少量接盘多单被套后暂时持仓不动, 当前三地油脂商品略显分化(美盘迷糊 马盘疲软 内盘中性),这种局面多看少动为上策。

• Malaysia palm oil plunged for few consecutive days.
• Recommend to wait for the upcoming USDA report, which will be released tonight.

• Traders are advised to hold current positions.
• Traders who do not hold any positions are advised to observe and wait for the release of USDA report.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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