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Global Vegoils Analysis – 8 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.11.8日周四美盘豆油中阳上涨内盘马盘油脂较弱

美盘豆油12月合约(或1月),昨日周三晚间中阳K线上涨表现,期价在低位的反身上行欲望还是比较强烈,仅仅是整体市场做多人气凝聚不够,盘面略显犹豫,市场观望情绪较浓(等待中美贸易谈判具体结果),但我们逢低做多观点保持不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1901主力合约,期价在11月2日那根长阴K线的右侧徘徊震荡,期价再度下跌意愿不强。 内盘棕榈油1901合约表现就较为疲弱一些,期价在11月2日那根阴K线的右下角波动,上周五的那根阴K线杀伤气氛仍在市场蔓延,同时,内盘期货市场以黑色系贱金属螺纹钢 铁矿石 煤炭等品种下跌情绪影响下,拖累整体期货市场的做多人气,内盘棕榈油需继续关注11月2日下影线的支撑力度。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(12月),昨日周三盘面为十字星K线,期价窄幅波动。 今天周四上午盘面,期价再度高开低走阴K线下跌追随内盘大连市场走低,盘面短线走势较为疲软。

小结:美盘豆油短线酝酿反弹上行走势延续中,内盘马盘油脂商品却表现疲弱,特别是棕榈油品种,期价仍在继续小幅下探,在得不到美盘豆油明确的短线方向指引下,内外盘分化走势明显——–外强内弱 油强棕榈油弱迹象明显。。。。考虑到本波回落整理已经持续很长时间,短线下方空间已经被封杀,我们继续保持谨慎的短多观点不变,耐心等待做多人气的聚集。 操作上:前期老多单 低位新进多单 继续持有,关注美盘豆油后续反弹上涨的动能是否有效放大。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil rallied while Malaysia and China edible oils remain bearish.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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