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Global Vegoils Analysis – 8 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘黄豆连短线角度的震荡反弹上行延续中,但在收割季节,期价上涨力度不大。 美盘豆油12月合约,从9月19日起,一波反弹上行走势延续中,期价上穿60天均线阻挡之后,上涨力度增强,正如此前我们所预计的那有——-短线节奏为 “先上冲 然后回落”,当前短期均线金叉上穿之后的期价回落确认过程进行中, 日K线图表上多头均线排列正在悄悄酝酿中。

大陆内盘国庆七天假期回来,今天10月8日周一为首个交易日,在美盘豆油反弹上行过程中,恰好内盘停盘,而美豆油回落时候,内盘今天才开始交易,因此上内盘与美盘短线不同步————内盘油脂豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周一早盘期价高开补涨,但补涨的幅度却不是很大(豆粕品种上涨幅度较大 2.70%左右),今天内盘豆油 棕榈油上午盘面为高开的阴十字星K线,涨幅低于我们假期前的心理预期,但在上行动能未出现衰竭信号前,我们仍保持反弹观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,上周正常交易,盘面表现为“先抑后扬”走势, 在10月3日 4日 5日均为小阳K线上涨,但在缺少了内盘油脂的盘面走势带动,单一的马盘棕榈油不能完成整体油脂商品的上行,印尼棕榈油产量的增加以及马来西亚高库存是影响盘面的主要心理利空因素,但考虑到中国大陆第四季度油脂商品消费高峰的来临,以及后期印尼 马来西亚棕榈油的产量逐步下降,对后市下方我们依旧不看会跌落很深,短线继续保持短多思维。

小结: 内盘国庆七天假期期间,美豆油短线反弹上行,盘面上形成了“冲高回落”走势(先扬后抑), 今天内盘油脂开盘交易,盘面补涨幅度不够,二者短线走势也存在时间差上的“不同步”现象, 而马盘棕榈油夹在二者之间,短线也出现了模棱两可走势。。。。对于内盘 马盘油脂商品来说,在短线反弹未出现明显的衰竭信号前,我们继续短多思维对待(美盘倒是出现了冲高之后的下挫信号)。具体操作上: 内盘 马盘油脂商品短线多单继续持有,关注美盘豆油回落均线确认过程走势中的回落幅度大小。

• During Golden Week Holiday in China, a retracement occurred in US soybean oil.
• China edible oils reopened but the gains are unsynchronized with US soybean oil.
• Malaysia palm oil was in trading range.

• Traders may continue to hold current positions.
• Focus on the rate of decline for US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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