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Global Vegoils Analysis – 9 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.9日周五双重利空消息来袭全球油脂商品急挫下跌幅度超出我们此前预料

昨日晚间美国农业部公布最新数据报告:美国大豆播种面积不变 单产不变 总产量不变。 美国大豆 豆油出口量下调。 美国大豆期末库存从2月份的5.3亿蒲式耳上调至5.55亿蒲式耳。 美国豆油期末库存从15.36亿磅上调至17.51亿磅。 巴西大豆总产量从2月份的1.12亿吨上调至1.13亿吨,上调100万吨。 阿根廷大豆总产量从2月份的5400万吨下调到4700万吨,下调700万吨。 中国2017/2018大豆进口量预估值保持不变,依旧为9700万吨———-从上面各类数据综合分析,本次报告中性带利空! 美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周四晚间期价中阴下跌,当前短线期价正往2018年2月中旬时候的前低靠近(31.60一线), 技术上存在试探前低支撑的可能,是否能下破将成为关键(美盘豆油短线角度继续下探 在时间上等待周线图 月线图中长期角度上的调整)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,受短线利空消息影响严重(印度),期价领头羊直线下坠,今天周五早盘再度跳空低开(技术上第4个跳空缺口),从传统意义上来说,一般在第4个跳空缺口时候为“衰竭跳空”,本波马盘下挫速度迅捷,下跌幅度较深,期价瞬间已经下破2440一线的前低(跳下来2天了),打了我们个措手不及。。。让我们继续关注短线急跌过后的市场恢复表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,春节过后内盘油脂曾一波短线反弹行情走势,期价已经上冲到60天均线上方,原本的冲高回落走势也在我们预料当中,但是回落的“幅度”却超乎出我们预料——-内盘豆油1805当前短线回落到前期反弹的50%左右,内盘棕榈油略弱,稍微坚持了2天(3月5号 6号),然后就受随马盘棕榈油疲软影响直线下滑,内盘棕榈油也再次靠近2018年2月5号前低5050一线。

小结:美盘豆油受昨日晚间利空基本面影响期价下挫到前低附近,等待接受前低考验。 马盘毛棕榈油领先2天下破前低2440技术支撑位, 内盘豆油勉强多头盘中抵抗, 内盘棕榈油追随马盘棕榈油走低(临近前低)。 本波油脂类商品短线下挫幅度较深,最关键是下跌速度较快—–虽然我们曾高位时候建议多单逢高减持, 也操作上预防了冲高回落走势所带来的风险,但我们还是没有预料到“往下回落的幅度”会如此深, 原本预估是小幅回落调整,还准备在调整低点时候出局多单再逢低接回, 后感觉形势不对,该操作建议被取消。 但由于思维上没跟住下跌速度,并未反手短空操作建议,以至于本波走势未能把握住———–总体来说 ,在潜意识里面,我们中长期角度还是看多油脂商品的,因此对短线的调整没有预想到会有这么深的幅度,多亏上周末时候我们只是建议少量多单在回落过程中逢低接盘,保守估计少量多单损失还在承受范围内。 当前油脂商品短线走势急跌,短线上存在超卖迹象, 下周开始期价将会探底反弹,我们手中多单等待反弹过程中再平仓了结不迟,暂时忍受本周的急迫下跌。

[SUMMARY]
• Malaysia palm oil broke support level of 2440, testing lower support level.
• China soybean oil is in tandem with Malaysia soybean oil – both market plunged since last week.
• This week, global soybean oil went downwards faster than expectation.
• Global soybean oil is in “oversold” condition.

[ACTION]
• Traders are advised to maintain current positions until reversal signal appear.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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