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Global Weekly Market Wrap – 11 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周二 油脂多头护盘 是否护盘成功尚不明朗

中国2月份最新出口贸易数据疲软,中国海关总署公布中国2月贸易帐录得229.8亿美元的赤字,预期盈余145亿美元,前值盈余319亿美元。2月出口意外骤降18.1%,贸易帐大幅赤字。 另外传言中国企业在金属铝上债务违约,令市场对中国经济放缓担忧重燃,商品期货市场, 中国证券市场均被空头气氛笼罩,昨日均出现不同程度下跌。

大陆商品市场,昨日出现普跌。 今日早盘,各类商品普遍低开,由于昨日超跌,部分商品低开高走。 其中橡胶9月合约昨日出现跌停价格未被封住,今天又见涨停价格,橡胶中长期筑底迹象较为明显。

油脂类商品昨日上午低开低走形成中阴K线,有意思的是,在下午1:30分开盘后,期价在多头护盘下再度被拉起,失地又被收复,尾盘以带下影线的十字星收盘, 当天盘中震荡较为激烈。 今日早盘低开高走,在昨日期价附近徘徊,高位震荡态势明显。

马盘毛棕榈油5月,昨日走势较强,全天呈低开高走态势,盘中创新高2910, 受国内利空影响不大。

美盘黄大豆昨日晚间放量下跌,长阴收盘,吞没迹象显露,后市存在技术走坏苗头。美豆油昨日晚间中阴收盘,下跌幅度虽小于美黄豆,但也出现了高位震荡走势。

小结: 从我们较关心的油脂类商品来说,美盘走势有走坏迹象, 虽然未明显传导到内盘 马盘油脂商品上,内盘 马盘虽未出现明显的下跌,但在整体大环境下,内盘和马盘油脂商品再大幅走高的难度也相对变的越来越大,对于此点我们要有思想准备。在这敏感时期,操作上对盘面敏感的波段操作者仍建议逢高平仓了结。 趋势操作者中保守派操作人士抱着“不见兔子不撒鹰,不见棺材不落泪”的心态仍可持有原多单,但思想上也需要时刻保持警惕。后市油脂商品短线变盘的可能越来越大。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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