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Global Market Wrap – 6 December 2013

A commentary written by Tony Tong

日周五 昨天内盘出现恐慌 棕榈油在箱体部位徘徊

12.5日国储收储橡胶情况落实。昨日市场传竞拍8万吨国营全乳胶,但仅成交6.05万吨,流拍1.95万吨,最高成交价格为20312元/吨。由于国营胶的收储量未达到市场的预期,市场对后市持谨慎的态度。竞拍量及成交量远不及前期传闻的18万吨。橡胶市场失落情绪一度失控。

在此情绪影响下 ,内盘大部分商品也出现了不同程度恐慌。内盘商品包括橡胶 PTA 豆粕 豆油 棕榈油 螺纹 玻璃 焦炭等品种在下午盘14:40分左右,离收盘差20分钟时候,突然出现减仓出逃资金涌出,期价短暂下跌,减仓下行, 为明显的多头主力出逃行为。上面品种中仅仅棕榈油1405合约一个品种表现为增仓下行,为空头主力刻意打压。

内盘1405合约棕榈油前期我们曾提到过正接受箱体下沿的支撑考验,这个下沿位置就在6180一线(浮动上下30点)。期价来到这个位置,更多的是考验空头是否有魄力把价格砸破原平台整理区间的箱体下沿,若无功而返,就会变成多头最佳的接盘机会。

马盘棕榈油 未受中国大陆棕榈油昨日大跌影响,依然保持震荡盘升偏强走势,有消息称:印度尼西亚总统表示,印尼必须制订政策,提高国内生物燃料用量,提振棕榈油价格,其已经与农业部长进行交谈,下月政府将开始制订一项政策来提高生物柴油产量,并支持棕榈油价格。

美盘豆油昨天期价略有反弹,以小阳K线收盘, 表明探底过程依然处于酝酿中。美盘大豆, 豆粕期价却出现下滑迹象。密切关注该类商品后市走势。

大陆现货市场油脂类报价基本平稳,各地略有小幅涨跌,但整体情况无多大变化。

个人看法: 内盘棕榈油1405合约正在箱体下沿位置徘徊震荡。

1. 短线激进操作者以及波段操作者可于6160至6180一线多单接盘买进,以箱体下沿下方X点作为多单止损位。
2. 稳健操作者场外继续观望。
3. 趋势操作者在箱体下沿未明显被击破信号确立前,依旧大智若愚般持原底部老多单,继续装糊涂。中线看多观点不变。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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