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Global Markets Analysis – 01 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.08.2017周二继续关注油脂类商品反弹高度

美盘豆油12月合约,受美国生物燃油利好消息刺激,上周五晚间长阳突破多日横盘的高点上沿,今天盘面上期价仍在较高位置波动震荡,从短线观察美盘豆油12月合约,受下方多头排列的均线系统支撑,期价震荡走高,盘中并未发生过像样的回落整理,我们继续关注美盘豆油的反弹高点以及利好消息刺激的时效性。当反弹动能衰竭时,便是新的一轮回落整理的开始。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约(今天8月份第一天开始,1709合约退出历史舞台),内盘豆油1801合约近期期价波动不大,几乎呈现横盘整理状态,该品种上空单持有者出局后暂时观望。内盘棕榈油1801合约短线走势痕迹跟1709合约略有不同,它更接近马盘棕榈油走势,也呈现出我们昨天所描述的3浪结构,继续关注内盘棕榈油反弹高度。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周一高开低走表现,今天周二延续昨天态势,继续小阴K线走势,表明上方高位也存在一定压力(短多获利盘有逢高减仓小动作),我们继续等待3浪反弹结束之后的回落整理走势出现。

小结:美盘豆油马盘棕榈油都有一个较为明显的3浪结构反弹走势,( 美盘豆油是一根长阳表现),从1浪与3浪的反弹长度观察,二者涨幅几乎接近(差也是只差3浪一点点高度),因此上第3浪反弹高度上方的空间也不会很大,我们继续关注反弹动能情况。具体操作上:由于我们短了反弹第3浪的操作节拍,一个节凑踏错就会影响到后面节奏的跟随,这也是造成我们当前非常被动的原因。已经空单平仓了结散户朋友继续场外观望。剩余部分被套空单现在再止损已经没有意义,好在当前短线不具备独立单边大行情(拉锯震荡),所以我们仍有机会见到原先价格,待本波反弹结束时刻(3浪时间推算在第11–13个交易日,也就是本周末时候),若操作完美—–能在高位的进场少许空单 ,高低位空单的均价,我们仍有反败为胜的空单出局机会。继续关注本波反弹高度。

[SUMMARY]
• Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil have shown an obvious downward correction after the third waves of uptrend.
• We shall focus on the rebound market action

[ACTION]
• Retail Traders who have closed out all short positions may wait and observe the market.
• Traders who are still holding short positions may pay close attention to the reversal of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil.
• Traders may average their short positions when the prices are high.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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