Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Gold and Oil Markets Report – 13 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.09.2017周三美国农业部报告出炉大豆利空豆油略利多整体评价为利空

昨日周二晚间美国农业部(USDA)最新报告出炉,美国大豆单产预测值为49.9蒲式耳/英亩,比8月份的预测值上调0.5蒲式耳/英亩,远高于市场平均预测值(市场分析师原本预测为下调单产)。这样美国大豆总产量恐将达到44.31亿蒲式耳,较上月增加5000万蒲式耳。美大豆期末库存维持在4.75亿蒲式耳未做调整(市场原本预测下调)。期货市场美黄豆闻利空消息应声下跌,昨日晚间中阴下挫(4连阴)。美国农业部报告同时指出,由于对生物柴油整体需求上调(反应出美国对阿根廷和印度尼西亚生物柴油征收反补贴关税影响),美豆油年末总库存略下调(利多,美国的生物柴油主要是以豆油为基础原料)。美豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间期价宽幅震荡,终盘以带上下影线的小阳十字星收盘,期价仍未收复上周五的阴K线失地。今天亚洲电子盘略有走软。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日我们提到过,内盘豆油棕榈油短线走势分化—–内盘豆油追随美盘豆油短线走势,短线走势略显疲软(横盘波动或者下挫)。而内盘棕榈油追随马盘棕榈油短线走势略显强势上扬。今天周三盘面早盘期价略有走高,但午盘后期价下挫,长上影线的出现——表明期价再继续上行压力大增。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,受马来西亚棕榈油局周一报告利多情绪影响(昨日已经论述,今不再复述),本周一周二马盘棕榈期价独立性延续红盘上涨,马盘棕榈油的独立特性又一次展现,今天周三午盘前,以上影线的阴十字星暂时收盘,考虑到油脂类商品期价最终会统一期价运行,我们不改变观点—–不建议追高。

小结:美盘马盘油脂商品短线走势分化——美盘利空,马盘利多,这造成内盘油脂商品也恐慌性追随。但考虑到最终会回归到美盘油脂商品最终指引上来—–我们依旧保持短空思维观点不变。具体操作上:已进反手尝试的新空单继续谨慎持有,今日晚间美豆油继续下挫概率仍然很高,我们继续以短空的回落整理观点对待(基本面利多,利空消息最多影响三天,所以我们仍以技术面研判为主)。

[SUMMARY]
• US edible oils are moving downward, it is opposite to the direction of Malaysian palm oil.
• US edible oils and Malaysian palm oil are diverging, causing China edible oils might be panic tracking.
• We remain our short-term short outlook on US edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are holding short positions may retain it as US soybean oil are having high probability to drop.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock