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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 18 August 2014

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

The Ukraine tension persists in threatening the market stability with much uncertainty. Euro economy declines after Germany slowed down in business confidence and consumer prices. On Friday, the simultaneous flight to US Dollar weighed down on Gold prices. Weekly crude inventories rose 1.4 million barrels in the week ended 9 August but prices jumped on Friday after Ukraine said they destroyed a filtrating force from Russia.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices fell from 97.00 regions to 93.80 bottoms last week after crude inventories growth. The market jumped on Friday and closed at 95.10 after Ukraine said it had destroyed a convoy forces entering the country. This week, we foresee the market will be supported at 94.00 levels while recovering at 98.00 areas. Breaking above 98.00 resistances will probably test 100.00 as ultimate targets in case of fierce short covering from previous selling activities.

Gold

Gold prices were trading mostly around 1310.00 levels for whole week until it fell to 1292.00 bottoms on Friday. Market declined after FED policymaker James Bullard commented interest rates might rise over year-end faster than expected. The market closed at 1304.00 levels with bargain-hunting forces below 1300.00 levels. This week, we reckon the market will thread from 1295.00 – 1310.00 ranges but breaking into either way will lead into new trend. No clue for the technical analysis until the fundamental news step into market.

Silver

Silver prices broke below 19.800 last week and closed at 19.564 levels on Friday. This week, the trend may continue into southern direction in weak sentiment. Technically, we foresee the downtrend may extend to 19.1500 areas while resistances will emerge at 19.800 levels. Take note that Gold/Silver ratio has stretched into wider spread and indicates Silver may fall faster than Gold prices.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives plunged down and hit 5-year low last week at RM2093. Market sentiment has been affected by weak soybean prices in Chicago Board of Trade Exchange. The newly roll-over month in November contract settled at 2094 levels for the weekend. This week, we reckon the market will be sluggish and may decline to 2020 bottom. Resistance is identified at 2150 levels.

Dar Wong

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Bloggers, DAR Wong and Chong HC

DAR Wong and Chong HC are the market strategists in APSRI on CPO markets. DAR has 24 years of trading and hedging experiences while HC trades for 6 years and now coaches institutional customers. They can be reached at www.traderpromaster.com

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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