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Global Vegoils Analysis – 29 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.29日周一美盘豆油下挫整理延续中内盘马盘油脂商品略微出现抵抗

美盘黄豆连短线走势横盘波动,期价略微走稳,至少没有再出现较大的下跌。美盘豆油12月行合约,短线下破60天均线的支撑后,下挫走势仍在延续中,盘中未出现明显的止跌信号,今天是再次下探运行的第十个交易者(10月16日开始),让我们继续多关注它3天。

内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周一十字星表现,期价略微止跌,但盘面止跌反弹信号还是不够明显,我们继续多空仓单对锁,谨慎态度对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),上周五时分,期价长阴K线下跌,盘中多头减仓盘空头打压盘表现明显。 今天周一期价高开高走-----短线修正上周五的猛烈下跌,但若今天的阳K线不能吞没上周五的那根阴K线,就仍不足以表明止跌企稳,只能表明下跌幅度过大之后的一种抵抗,继续关注美盘豆油是否出现明显的止跌信号。

小结:美盘豆油短线下探走势延续中,盘面未显示出明显的止跌信号。 内盘马盘油脂商品抵抗性跟随,虽然今天棕榈油暂时红盘表现,但仍不足以扭转短线下挫, 最多只能告诉我们下方的回落空间正在逐步收窄。。。具体操作上:我们继续多空仓单对锁持有,其中空单数量略大于多单-----------也只是表明我们一种短线态度,并且是在短线走弱时,如果仅仅多空仓单等数量的锁仓,那只是锁定了账面多单亏损的幅度,而不能出现账面空单的盈余。 后市短线我们会继续关注止跌信号的出现,逢低空单首先离场仍为本周主要任务。

[SUMMARY]
• The rout continue in U.S. soybean oil, no sign of recovery soon.
• Malaysia palm oil rallied, but unable to offset earlier losses.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than...

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Dow Jones Market Falls to 16-Week Low

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 29 October 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US GDP grows in Q3 season amid stock fall. Policymakers express more rate hike will come despite President Trump contests it. European Central Bank stays unchanged in monetary policy and expects inflation to pick up before year-end. Crude prices decline in flat demand.

The US new home sale expanded at 553,000 in October and lowest since January 2017. Report on GDP rose 3.5 percent in Q3 season on annualized rate and better than forecast.

The US orders for durable goods rose 0.8 percent in October and against negative forecast. Another report on core durable goods, excluding transport equipment, expanded 0.1 percent and missed forecast.

Weekly jobless claims at 215,000 for the week ended 21 October and stayed flat. Dow Jones benchmark dipped to 16-week low record and...

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.26日周五美盘豆油短线回落走势延续中关注下方回落空间大小

进入10月份,当前美国大豆正是收获季节,截止到目前,美大豆收割率已经过半(55%左右)-----------通常来说,在收获季节,农作物的价格往往是一年中最低时候,大量新豆上市的心理压力恐会影响商品期货市场。。。近期美大豆价格短线下跌,已经跌到十年前的水平,当然这中间也有“中美贸易摩擦”客观条件的影响,中美两国关系的不确定性也是造成今年后半年期货市场操作难度大增的主要原因-----市场往往突然变脸,短线持续性不强,这给我们在具体技术研判上带来不少困难。 对美豆油12月合约来说:短线上攻受阻后,期价再次转为下寻支撑, 在下破60天均线的支撑后,盘面也并未出现大的恐慌-----整体处于一个死猪不怕开水烫的局面, 从中长期角度来说,我个人认为仍处于一个大周期的横盘筑底阶段,短线的回落空间并不看很大。 只是由于美豆油短线的再度走软,因此属于心理上防备性预防操作,在下周我们将继续考虑逢低空单减持操作,继续关注美豆油下方的回落空间仍是我们下周的关注焦点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,在美盘豆油下破60天均线后,内盘油脂出现大的下挫动作,盘中出现了一定的恐慌情绪(周三 周四阴K线下跌), 今天周五盘面暂时小十字星表现,对于美盘豆油后市下挫空间大小的不确定性,是造成内盘油脂短线急跌的主要原因,我们暂时建议继续锁仓操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),当美盘豆油 内盘油脂 甚至国际原油出现走低时候,马盘棕榈油不能不被殃及,本周三周四两天的阴K线跳空,说明马盘棕榈油追随性跟随性质很强烈, 这也跟马来西亚当前250万吨的高库存心理压力分不开,后期马棕榈油去库存仍为首要任务,暂时短线短空观点对待。

小结:美豆油未能上破前高,期价出现下破60天均线,但仍未到9月19日开始反弹上行的那个低点位置(当前仅仅回撤了60%左右),而内盘 马盘油脂商品却已经提前跌破9月21的前低位置,所以说内盘 马盘油脂表现的有点过头,我们当前建议暂时多空仓单锁仓------其中的空单数量略大于多单, 但是,这不等于我们极具看空很多,只是紧急状态的下的一个“权宜之计”,后市短线急跌过后,我们还是会第一时间空单首先离场,中长线筑大底阶段我们仍以短空长多观点保持不变,下周回来,我们短线角度会建议遇急跌,空单逢低兑现离场,后市,我们心理层面仍以多单操作为主,这才是我们的主要中心思想。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil broke support level at 60 days moving average, no sign of recovery soon.

[ACTION]
• Traders may initiate short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He...

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 25 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.25日周四美豆油下破60天均线的支撑

美豆油12月合约,昨日周四晚间期价下破60天均线28.70位置, 并且期价也跌破10月11日的那根小阳下影线(前低28.63),缺少了60天线的支撑作用,美豆油恐将继续走低,后市关注焦点转移到下破之后的回落空间大小上来,美豆油跌破关键技术位,短线走势转淡,我们以短暂的短空观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约, 当观察到美豆油下破60天线后,内盘油脂商品今天周四早盘期价低开低走,盘面空头力量有所增强,建议散户朋友部分空单进场。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),此时离开盘交易还有1小时多,考虑到美盘豆油技术走坏,内盘油脂期价下挫,这恐对马盘棕榈油造成拖累,建议马盘棕榈油10点半开盘后,前期多单持有者可反手空单进场锁仓操作,谨防期价继续走低。

小结:美豆油短线疲软态势瞬间明显,期价昨日晚间下破了60天均线的支撑---------美豆油短线出现走坏,期价惯性下挫存在可能,我们后市焦点转移到下破之后的回落空间大小上来。。。。。为谨防内盘 马盘前期多单持有者账面受到更大损失,今天周四早盘紧急建议: 前期多单持有者,可在开盘后反手空单进场,形成多空仓单“对锁”, 部分激进型交易者还可 空单数量略大于多单一些, 谨防美豆油下破技术性后所带来的伤害, 后市关注美豆油下破之后的回落空间(应该不会很深),待后市探明回落空间之后,我们再第一时间解锁操作。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil broke support level at 60 days moving average.

[ACTION]
• Focus on U.S. soybean oil retracement after breakout.
• Traders may initiate short positions.
• Aggressive traders may initiate large quantity of short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China...

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 24 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.24日周三国际原油下跌拖累油脂商品

纽约原油昨日周二晚间长阴K线下跌(跌幅3.3%左右),创近期最大单日跌幅。 美盘豆油12月合约昨日晚间也中阴K线走低,盘中期价最低为28.72,恰恰触发60天均线28.70位置------------60天均线正在接受考验? 是否能支撑得住,就让我们开始谨慎起来,是下破继续走低还是受支撑再反身向上,则成为我们继续关注的焦点,也是短线走势的风向标。

内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,见美豆油期价中阴下探60天均线后市短线走势不明-----今天周三早盘开盘,期价就低开低走,盘中部分多头恐慌性减仓,截止中午时分,期价仍阴K线表现-------关注今天阴K线的“下影线”长短?

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月), 当看到国际原油 美豆油 内盘油脂期价走低,今天周三早盘也顺势跳空低开走软,期价正逐步靠近9月21日的前低位置(该位置是前一波反弹的起始点 9月21----10月5日),马棕榈短线弱势也较为疲软。

小结: 美盘豆油昨日晚间期价触及60天均线,后市是下破还是受到支撑? 暂时还没给出明确答案-----------当美豆油期价临近关键技术位时候,内盘 马盘油脂商品多头主力率先心理负担加重,今天提前出现了部分止损盘, 我们再多观察美豆油今晚如何表现,若确定60天均线被明确下破,我们再建议平多反手追空操作,今天晚上美豆油的短线走势就显得尤为关键。。。。若有任何风吹草动 我们会在明天早盘报告中早早提醒大家。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil barely hovered above 60 days moving average. • China and edible oils tumbled, triggered cut-loss point.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to hold current positions as long as U.S soybean oil did not break below 60 days moving average.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.23日周二美盘豆油仍有下挫回抽60天均线的可能

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周一晚间小阳十字星表现,今天周二上午为小阴K线走势--- ----美豆油回落整理短线回抽确认下方60天均线走势延续中,我们表示继续关注。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周二上午红盘表现,午后转为小阴K线走势,内盘油脂短线追随美豆油走势,回落过程中成交量未放大,盘面价跌量减迹象明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),昨日周一小阳K线上涨,今天周二小阴K线下跌,马棕榈不温不火的横盘震荡走势延续中,盘面成交清淡,市场观望情绪较浓。

小结:美豆油短线回落下方60天均线,只要期价仍还在该均线上方运行,我们暂时仍以短多观点对待,除非市场下破60天均线的技术支撑,对短暂的回落幅度继续关注。操作上: 内盘 马盘前期油脂商品的多单谨慎持有,继续以下方60天均线作为风向标-----60天均线之上运行多单持有, 60天均线被下破则反手平多翻空, 不上不下就冷眼旁观。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil hovered around 60 days moving average

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to hold current positions as long as U.S soybean oil did not break below 60 days moving average.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He...

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.22日周一美盘豆油十字星表现

美盘豆油12月合约,上周四一根中阴K线下滑,令短线走势变得“谨慎起来”,存在前高受阻的嫌疑。但上周五晚间,期价呈现十字星阴K线表现,期价也未下跌很多,整体还在60天均线上方运行, 美盘豆油短线走势出现“模糊走势”-------前高不上破 下方60天均线还支撑,恐美豆油短线仍需要在前高与60天均线(30.00至28.70之间运行一段时间),美豆油到底是要上破还是再次考验下方60天线的支撑?这还需要我们本周继续观察。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,见美盘豆油迟迟不突破前高,上周四时候内盘油脂长阴K线下跌,期价下挫幅度较大,盘中出现失望情绪,空头主力趁机打压。上周五期价呈现长阴K线右下角的小阴K线------当今天看到美盘豆油并未出现明显下跌,今天周一早盘又小阳K线红盘表现,在继续等待美豆油的短线走势指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),短线走势不温不火,任由你美盘 内盘油脂商品剧烈波动, 马盘棕榈我行我素独自小幅波动徘徊,“不见兔子不撒鹰”------马棕榈在震荡徘徊中等待更明确的信号,未冒然随意盲目跟随。

小结:美盘豆油短线仍在60天均线上方运行-----暂时下有均线支撑 上有前高阻挡,在一个小的窄区间内运行,内盘情绪化反应稍微过大,马盘却不为所动。而我们散户朋友也建议先不盲目操作,继续关注美盘豆油最新短线走势状况, 整体来说: 中长线角度我们继续以探底后的向上酝酿反弹观点对待,短线角度的期价模糊走势暂时忽略。具体操作上: 稳健型交易者手中多单继续持有,激进型交易者部分减仓多单后,剩余仓单暂时不盲目操作,关注美豆油“心悸颤抖之后”到底会如何表现?

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil’s immediate support set around 60 days moving average.

[ACTION]
• Focus on market movement from U.S. soybean.
• Aggressive traders may reduce current positions.
• Conservative traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association....

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 22 Oct 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices declined beneath USD71 /barrel support and settled at USD69 /barrel region on Friday. This week, we expect the trend will be in lower demand and range from USD67 – USD71 /barrel in mixed sentiment. Firm Dollar is another factor that adds pressure onto energy prices despite fund is likely to rush into precious metals. Fundamentally, we shall wait for other new market news in November to rekindle new buying demand in Crude market.

Gold

Gold prices have slowed down and rattled around USD1230 /oz for few days before weekend. Technically, we predict the trend will be constricted from USD1215 – USD1230 /oz until it breaks beyond either direction. In case of Dow Jones market falling further in coming week, there is a possibility to see yellow metal rising...

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BoE Reiterates Confidence in BEXIT Impact

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 22 October 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. housing data slide in building permit and existing home sales. China maintains in GDP as expected. Bank of England reiterates confidence in cushioning BREXIT impact.

The U.S. building permit rose 1.24 million in September and lower than revised 1.24 million gains in August. Housing starts expanded within limit of 1.20 million and below forecast.

The U.S. existing home sales declined for sixth month in September by expanding 5.15 million. American jobless claims for the week ended 13 October at 210,000 and improved from prior week 215,000.

China's consumer prices rose 2.5 percent in September on year basis. Another report on producer prices grew 3.6 percent from a year ago. Both matched forecast.

China's retail sales grew 9.2 percent in September from a year ago and...

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