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Global Vegoils Analysis – 11 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.11日周四美盘豆油回落走势延续内盘油脂商品剧烈波动谨防马盘棕榈油受到伤害

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间继续阴K线下挫,今天周四亚洲电子早盘仍然阴K线表现------美豆油短线角度的冲高回落走势进行中,期价下挫回落确认均线(下方的60天均线被9月26 日金叉上穿后, 现在又回落60天均线来确认支撑力度),美盘豆油短线走势仍在我们的预期中,继续关注其回落空间大小。

内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,见到美盘豆油喋喋不休,今天周四早盘出现多头恐慌情绪,期价出现剧烈波动,早盘的长阴K线下跌引发盘面剧烈波动,多空主力对后市看法分歧加大,密切关注其下影线的长度。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,当前9点尚未开盘交易,考虑到内盘今天周四早盘的恐慌情绪影响,恐对马棕榈油也带来情绪上的波动-----此前马棕榈就一直表现略显疲软与模糊(上涨无力 下跌无力 一直在2200令吉特附近徘徊),期价一直徘徊在60天均线下方,今天开盘要谨慎为妙。

小结:美盘豆油回落均线确认过程进行中,内盘油脂今天盘面突然出现多头恐慌情绪,期价出现大幅下跌,谨防该情绪对马盘棕榈油多头主力带来不利影响。 具体操作上: 激进型交易者前期多单适量减仓规避一下回抽均线带来的不利影响, 稳健型交易者暂时缓动一下,关注一下盘面是否真的出现变盘信号, 同时继续关注美盘豆油下挫空间大小。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil retracement to moving average has yet to confirm.
• China edible oils plummeted, may spill over to Malaysia palm oil.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may reduce positions to avoid volatility.
• Conservative traders may hold on to their positions and observe market conditions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 10 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.10日周三美盘豆油冲高回落后的回抽均线确认走势延续中

美盘豆油12月合约,昨天周二晚间期价中阴K线下跌, 冲高回落的回抽均线走势延续中,短线走势基本符合我们在节奏上的心理预期,均线系统将如何转变需要我们继续密切关注,并且密切 关注下方回落空间的大小。

内盘油脂商品豆油1901主力合约,昨日长阳上涨,今天周三继续红盘表现,日K线图表是均线系统为多头排列,下方均线的支撑力度较强。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,今天十字星走势,由于日K线图表上均线系统为空头排列,因此短线走势上要弱于豆油很多, 但昨日周二的长阳K线上涨,让我们有理由相信反弹上行走势仍在延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,日K线图表上也是均线空头排列,上方的60天均线的技术压力还在盘面显现,因此马盘棕榈油短线走势略弱,继续关注上方60天均线处的市场表现。

小结: 美盘豆油均线系统正在悄悄酝酿从空头排列转为多头排列,市场期价运行节奏正如我们节前所料------先上冲 然后 回落均线确认。 内盘豆油短线走势较强,期价继续保持反弹上行态势。 内盘 马盘棕榈油短线走势稍弱,由于均线系统暂时还为空头排列,上方的60天均线压制作用还在影响着市场心理,因此反弹力度不够。 操作上: 前期多单继续谨慎持有, 继续关注美盘豆油的后续表现(美盘与内盘 马盘在节奏上 不同步)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil slowly gaining buying momentum, expect strong uptrend in short term.
• China soybean oil maintaining upward trend in short term.
• China and Malaysia palm oil showing weak rebound signal as strong resistance around 60 days moving average still intact.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF...

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 9 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.9日周二内盘棕榈油长阳飙涨

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周一晚间阳K线带下影线表现,虽说冲高回落的短线回落均线仍在延续中,但盘面上的“下影线”的出现仍表明存在多头抵抗动作,当前下方短期均线仍随着时间推移在悄悄上升,空头排列的均线系统正在悄悄向着多头排列演变,是否演变成功需要我们后市继续关注。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周一盘面表现为十字星或小阴K线,虽说早盘期价跳空高开-----但补涨幅度不够我们心理预期,今天周二早盘期价长阳K线上涨,多头才开始发力,这给予我们心理上一定安慰,前期多单继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,昨日周一期价意外阴K线走低,盘面多头人气涣散,今天周二早盘,见到内盘大连市场油脂商品走高,才略微高开追随,期价暂时维持在2200令吉特一线左右,马盘棕榈油市场在基本面情况不见好转之前,仍需要美盘 内盘油脂商品走势上的带动。

小结:美盘豆油“冲高回落”短线走势延续中,均线系统是否逆转成功?仍有待我们后市继续关注。内盘油脂商品今天出现“补涨”(豆粕品种涨幅居前), 马盘棕榈油在略显疲软中跟随------------对于内盘 马盘油脂商品来说,在反弹衰竭信号未出现前,我们继续短多思维对待。操作上:前期多单继续谨慎持有。

[SUMMARY]
• Ongoing retracement in US soybean oil.
• China edible oils surged.
• Malaysia palm oil showed weak uptrend momentum.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10...

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 8 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.8日周一"国庆"假期回来内盘油脂商品开盘交易

美盘黄豆连短线角度的震荡反弹上行延续中,但在收割季节,期价上涨力度不大。 美盘豆油12月合约,从9月19日起,一波反弹上行走势延续中,期价上穿60天均线阻挡之后,上涨力度增强,正如此前我们所预计的那有-------短线节奏为 “先上冲 然后回落”,当前短期均线金叉上穿之后的期价回落确认过程进行中, 日K线图表上多头均线排列正在悄悄酝酿中。

大陆内盘国庆七天假期回来,今天10月8日周一为首个交易日,在美盘豆油反弹上行过程中,恰好内盘停盘,而美豆油回落时候,内盘今天才开始交易,因此上内盘与美盘短线不同步------------内盘油脂豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周一早盘期价高开补涨,但补涨的幅度却不是很大(豆粕品种上涨幅度较大 2.70%左右),今天内盘豆油 棕榈油上午盘面为高开的阴十字星K线,涨幅低于我们假期前的心理预期,但在上行动能未出现衰竭信号前,我们仍保持反弹观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,上周正常交易,盘面表现为“先抑后扬”走势, 在10月3日 4日 5日均为小阳K线上涨,但在缺少了内盘油脂的盘面走势带动,单一的马盘棕榈油不能完成整体油脂商品的上行,印尼棕榈油产量的增加以及马来西亚高库存是影响盘面的主要心理利空因素,但考虑到中国大陆第四季度油脂商品消费高峰的来临,以及后期印尼 马来西亚棕榈油的产量逐步下降,对后市下方我们依旧不看会跌落很深,短线继续保持短多思维。

小结: 内盘国庆七天假期期间,美豆油短线反弹上行,盘面上形成了“冲高回落”走势(先扬后抑), 今天内盘油脂开盘交易,盘面补涨幅度不够,二者短线走势也存在时间差上的“不同步”现象, 而马盘棕榈油夹在二者之间,短线也出现了模棱两可走势。。。。对于内盘 马盘油脂商品来说,在短线反弹未出现明显的衰竭信号前,我们继续短多思维对待(美盘倒是出现了冲高之后的下挫信号)。具体操作上: 内盘 马盘油脂商品短线多单继续持有,关注美盘豆油回落均线确认过程走势中的回落幅度大小。

[SUMMARY]
• During Golden Week Holiday in China, a retracement occurred in US soybean oil.
• China edible oils reopened but the gains are unsynchronized with US soybean oil.
• Malaysia palm oil was in trading range.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to hold current positions.
• Focus on the rate of decline for US soybean oil.

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US Payroll Slumps Despite Jobless Rate Lowest since 1969

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 8 October 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US jobs opening fall despite unemployment rate at 49-year low record. Trump administration reaches a trade deal with Canada and Mexico rebranded under USMCA title. UK sees a slowdown on economic growth from previously exceeding most forecast benchmark, probably due to BREXIT challenge.

The US ISM manufacturing index grew 59.8 in September and matched forecast. Another report on US ISM services index rose 61.6 in September, beating forecast and highest since June 2007.

The US unemployment claims for the week ended 29 September sank to 207,000, better than revised 215,000 in previous week. The long-awaited monthly non-farm payroll dropped to 134,000 in September and lower than forecast.

Unemployment rate at 3.7 percent and lowest since 1969, while average hourly earnings stays at 0.3 percent gains on monthly comparison. FED...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 8 Oct 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices surged in early last week to USD76.90 /barrel and receded to USD74.30 /barrel on Friday. Disputes of rising oil prices among producing countries and President Trump has rattled the price movement into uncertainty. However, we have identified the firm Dollar to be irrelevant to Crude sentiment and might stay likewise in near future. This week, we forecast the trend may correct while supported at USD71 /barrel level. After threading inside USD71 – USD77 /barrel for a while, it will eventually pierce higher in coming weeks as output shortage increases.

Gold

Gold prices closed slightly above USD1200 /oz on Friday and rattled into tight range trading. Overall market sentiment has not changed as the trading activity takes control from USD1180 – USD1210 /oz for past week. Price movements are moving...

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Gold and Oil Markets Report – 1 Oct 2018

A guest post written by DAR Wong and Chong HC

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices climbed higher before weekend despite the Dollar rose. Effort of OPEC members for cutting the supply after the meeting in Algeria last week has helped to kick the demand. The spike on Friday before market closed has cemented the support at USD71 /barrel and prepare to move higher. Technically, we reckon the bull will charge higher and aim at USD75 /barrel this week.

Gold

Gold prices fell from USD1200 /oz top to USD1180 /oz region last week. Market is encountering the selling pressure after rate hike and looking for a directional headway. This week, we reckon the initial range will be contained from USD1180 - USD1210 /oz while the trend is near to the support now. Observe the violation beneath USD1180 /oz in case the trend drives lower to...

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Federal Reserve Raises 25 Basis Point Rate

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations - 1 October 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The US Federal Reserve hikes 25 basis points and signals another hike will come before year-end. American GDP grows 4.2 percent in improvement. The money supply slows down in Eurozone and consumer prices slide. UK is hitting a stonewall with EU negotiation on BREXIT deal and faces challenges in economic progress.

The US Conference Board of consumer confidence rose to 138.4 in September and higher than previous month. New home sale rose 629,000 in August and higher than revised 608,000 in July. Another report on pending home sale slid 1.8 percent in August and worse than expectation.

American durable goods order grew 4.5 percent and jumped higher than consensus. Excluding auto sales, core orders rose 0.1 percent and stagnated in August. Weekly jobless claims increased slightly to 214,000...

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Global Vegoils Analysis – 3 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.10.3日周三美盘豆油延续反弹内盘假期停盘马盘棕榈独自一人运行

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间中阳红盘上涨,期价继续拔高走势延续中,正如我们上周末所预料的那样,期价反弹上行走势延续中------下方的短期均线正逐步“金叉上穿”60天均线,前期的空头排列正在逐步演变为多头排列,让我们继续关注美盘豆油的上行力度。

大陆内盘油脂商品,由于国庆假期周(7天)休假,因此内盘油脂商品未开盘交易,等待10.8日回来后的市场补涨行情。

马盘棕榈油基准12月,本周一周二连续两天小阴K线走势,期价回落到9月20日前低的2137令吉特附近受到技术支撑,受美盘豆油 国际原油上涨提振,今天周三早盘期价跳空高开,截止上午11时,盘面暂时小阳K线上涨表现。

小结:内盘本周停盘未交易,在内盘长假期期间,美盘豆油延续反弹上行走势-------这基本符合我们此前的心理预期, 马盘棕榈油本周初先抑后扬,今天盘面出现走高,我们继续保持短多思维不变,具体操作上:前期空单逢低平仓离场开锁后的剩余多单 补仓多单 继续持有, 同时继续美盘豆油后市短线上行的量能表现与持续性,后市我们继续以震荡上行观点对待。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil surged and it was within expectation.
• Malaysia palm oil rebounded after retracement.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to hold current short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than...

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