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U.S. GDP Grows 2.9 Percent in Q4 Seasons

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations – 2 April 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The market was quiet throughout last week with Good Friday as holiday seasons. American weekly claims for jobless benefits fall to 4 weeks’ low record. U.K. trade deficits narrow while GDP grows in line with forecast.

The U.S. Conference Board of consumer confidence in March grew 127.2 but lower than forecast and dropped from previous month revised at 130.0. Pending home sales rose 3.1 percent in February and highest in 4 months. Final GDP for Q4 seasons grew 2.9 percent.

The U.S. consumer spending grew 0.2 percent in February and matched forecast. Jobless claims fell to 215,000 in the week ended 24 March and best in 4 weeks’ record.

Japan’s retail sales grew 1.6 percent in February on year basis. Core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 0.8 percent in March. Another report on unemployment rate remains steady at 2.5 percent in February.

German preliminary consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in March and missed expectation. Another separate report on Spanish consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in March from a year ago.

U.K. trade deficit shrank in Q4 seasons to GBP18.4 billion compared to minus GBP19.2 billion in previous quarter. Final GDP grew 0.4 percent in Q4 seasons.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY has a pull-up last week to 106.93 for consolidation. We are still carrying a short-view on market with resistance rising to 107.00 area. This week, we forecast the trend will decline to 105.00 level and trade sideways for a while. Risk control needs to be observed at 107.00 in case of ascension.

EUR/USD has been trading sideways from 1.2280 – 1.2450 range last week. Technically, the trend is still making consolidation with no clear direction. This week, we reckon the trend will be contained from 1.2230 – 1.2450 until it breaks beyond in either direction. Observe the Dollar trend and fundamental news in European region.

GBP/USD was prone bias to bears after middle last week. Technically, the trend is weak but might make a small pull up this week due to short-covering. We predict the range will be contained from 1.3900 – 1.4150 with better advantage to find entry from the extreme ends. Swinging trend is expected for early part of this week.

Dar Wong

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong.

DAR Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 26 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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