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U.S. Lead Airstrike against Syria

A guest post written by DAR Wong

Currency Market Observations – 16 April 2018

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. President Trump express enthusiasm to re-enter a new agreement of Trans-Pacific Pact (TPP). America leads airstrike against Syria that infuriates Russia. British housing prices stay robust at more than 1 year high.

The U.S. producer prices rose 0.3 percent in March while core prices gained 0.3 percent, both above forecast. Consumer prices slid 0.1 percent in March and sank into negative figure for first time in 10 months. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.2 percent and matched forecast.

American jobless claims for the week ended 7 April were reported at 233,000 cases. President Trump says his administration will look into re-entering Trans-Pacific Pact for negotiating new deal with bilateral partiers on fair ground.

On Friday, U.S. led a missile strike against Syrian Government with Britain and France, in retaliation of suspected chemical weapon use on the citizens. Russia has demonstrated anger on the attack since President Vladimir Putin has been a supporter to the President Bashar Assad of Syria.

China’s consumer prices grew 2.1 percent in March on year basis and slid from annualized 2.9 percent in previous month. Producer prices expanded 3.1 percent and matched forecast.

British Halifax housing price index rose 1.5 percent in March and highest since January 2017. Another separate report on manufacturing production slid 0.2 percent in February and sank into negative figure for first time in 8 months. Trade deficits shrank to lowest record at GBP10.2 billion in February.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY has been moving in tight range last week until a spike was seen on Friday. This week, we foresee strong resistance will guard at 107.80 – 108.00 region and trend is likely to fall. Overall expectation may be constricted from 105.80 – 107.80 region till the prices break beyond in either direction.

EUR/USD has been trapped in sideways from 1.2220 to 1.2420 range. This week, the observation on Dollar Index is very crucial as this will lead the Euro into strong inverse direction. The rise in Crude prices last week may provide a signal to lift Euro higher in coming weeks.

GBP/USD climbed higher last week due to stronger economic outlook. This week, we reckon strong resistance will emerge at 1.4300 – 1.4330 region. Possible range movement will be contained from 1.4000 – 1.4300 region in case of drawdown. Risk control is advised if the prices travel beyond the aforementioned range.

Dar Wong

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong.

DAR Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 26 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 





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