After a successful event in Johor last weekend, we are heading north to Penang this weekend to bring the hot selling event, "The Golden Investment Opportunity of Pre-General Election" to your doorstep. Our expert speaker Mr. Alfred Chen will be joined by another expert speaker, Mr. Winson Hoo, who has also given numerous talks at our events.

This time around, our speakers will reveal investment opportunities that you can seize now with the upcoming 13th General Election and how it will affect the stock market. Also, you will get tips on how to select potential stocks when KLCI reaches 1600 points and the speakers’ expert insights on the current situations of US economy and the Europe debt crisis.

This event is held this Saturday (May 19, 2012) at Berjaya 1 Room, Level 7, Berjaya Penang Hotel, 1-Stop Midlands Park, Burmah Road, 10350 Georgetown, Penang from 2.00pm to 6.30pm. Be sure to come early as registration is opened at 1.30pm. Admission is FREE to all OPF clients.

For more details, check out the event page here.

Don’t miss this event.

See you there!

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices came off to 95.50 regions as we forecast last week in weak technical trend. The market may face some short-covering in coming early week but resistance has shifted lower to 98.00 levels. While the market may swing between 95.00 – 98.00 ranges in some consolidation, we shall open our next lower target at 92.50 regions should the bears take control after mid week.

Gold

Gold prices have been reduced to 1570.00 regions as suggested last week. Moving forward, we reckon the market sentiment will remain weak with new resistance forming at 1600.00 levels. This week, we foresee the support will emerge at 1570.00 levels and trade sideways up to 1600.00 areas. However, breaking beneath 1570.00 supports could lead another new selling factor in market and drive the bears down to 1530.00 regions!

Silver

Silver prices lowered to 28.50 regions as we predicted previously. The market has slowed down its selling sentiment due to bargain-hunting emerges. This week, we foresee additional small room will open to 28.00 regions and good opportunity to pick long entry from this bottom area. The resistance lies at 29.50 levels that need to be cleared should we see the trend reversing up.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Derivatives continues close lower on Friday following low demands in Crude Oil and Soybean. Persistent worries in Eurozone debts added to the bearish sentiment. The July delivery contract closed at 3275 on Friday with overall market turnover more than 30,000 contracts. This week, we reckon the trading range will move from RM3200 to RM3400. However, there is a strong support at 3240 regions while topside room may re-test 3400 zones if the technical consolidation emerges.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is founder and principal consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). He was previously attached with Bankers Trust Futures Inc, Barclays ZW Futures and Smith Barney Shearson (Citigroup) Inc. He is also an active trader and author of 8 Ways to Invest In China’s Emerging Markets. Wong is also columnist for The Star, The Borneo Post in East Malaysia, The Busy Weekly, The Trader’s Journal, The Forex Journal, The Pulses, The Analysts and Capital Asia magazine. He is a regular speaker on trading topics as well as Master Speaker for the annual Asia Traders and Investors Convention (ATIC). Sign-up to receive newest posts in your Inbox or RSS

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Currency Market Observations – 14 May 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy remains flat while Europe resurges in crisis tension. Japan pledges to increase the currency liquidity should financial turmoil returns. The UK economy slumps in fatigue with retail sales and construction both sinking. Bank of England (BOE) stands on alert to add stimulus for fighting the slowdown in case the crisis spreads.

The US wholesale inventories rose 0.3 percent in March after followed 0.9 percent gain in prior month. Jobless claims dropped 1,000 filings to 367,000 in the week ended 5 May. Employment remains unsteady with consumer spending contracting.

The trade deficit widened more than forecast in March when trade gap grew 14 percent to USD51.8 billion. Imports jumped for foreign hardware and automobiles. Another report on producer price index slid 0.2 percent in April after no change in March, led by lower oil prices.

The German factory orders, after adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, jumped 2.2 percent from February. Another separate report on German industrial output gained 2.8 percent compared to 0.3 percent drop in February. As largest economy in Eurozone, Germany could be maintaining the strength to steer away from recession.

A strong data on German exports in March jumped 0.9 percent after seasonally adjusted, following 1.5 percent gain previously and making the third month’s straight growth. However, the Eurozone was in debt woes again last week when Greece was struggling to form a new government and Spain took control of its fourth largest bank.

Till now, European Central Bank (ECB) has injected more than EUR1 trillion (USD1.3 trillion) to loosen credits with cheap borrowings. But the major lender – Germany is forming top banking supervisors to examine the compliance lest the loose funding system may eventually create “a new bubble”.

In UK, the housing price index declined to minus 19 from minus 11 in March. Building output plunged 4.8 percent in Q1 and worse than initial estimate. Another two reports from British Retail Consortium said retail price slumped 3.3 percent in April from a year earlier while the shop-price inflation slowed to 1.3 percent.

BOE Governor Mervyn King is set to add more stimulus if the euro-crisis threatens the recovery. The announcement will be made next week that may support the pound’s value. Till date, the bonds purchase program holds at GBP325 billion with benchmark rates staying at 0.5 percent.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY has been supported at 79.50 – 80.00 regions while it consolidated. This week, we expect the trend to grow stronger and return back to 81.00 levels if the bulls can clear above 80.00 benchmarks. In addition to the commitment pledged by Japan’s policymakers to increase currency assets if needed, there will be good opportunity to see an uptrend soon. Abandon your long-view if the market sinks beneath 79.00 supports!

EUR/USD was down last week due to weak sentiment in both fundamental and technical strength. The market is resisted now at R1 – 1.3000 and R2 – 1.3060 but the downside room will be opened to 1.2800 regions if the bears continue in coming week. Beware of fundamental changes in policy-makings that may reverse the sentiment once the prices pierce above 1.3060 levels.

GBP/USD closed at the week’s low 1.6060 on Friday. This week, we foresee the support will emerge at 1.6000 benchmarks and the bulls will probably make technical recovery back to 1.6200 regions. Plan your long entry in early week but abandon your position if the market sinks beneath 1.6000 levels!

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA).   Receive the latest blog posts via your Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

It’s time for Johor! This time around, we are heading south for the hot selling event, "The Golden Investment Opportunity of Pre-General Election". Joining us in Johor this weekend are two expert speakers, Mr Gan Min Soo and Mr. Alfred Chen that will reveal investment opportunities that you can seize now with the upcoming 13th General Election and how it will affect the stock market.

Also, you will get tips on how to select potential stocks when KLCI reaches 1600 points and the speakers’ expert insights on the current situations of US economy and the Europe debt crisis.

This event is held this Saturday (May 12, 2012) at Grand Paragon Hotel, 18, Jalan Harimau, Taman Century, 80250, Johor from 2.00pm to 6.30pm. Be sure to come early as registration is opened at 1.30pm. Admission is FREE to all OPF clients.

For more details, head over the event page here.

Don’t miss this event.

See you there!

Currency Market Observations – 07 May 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US payrolls shrinks again while jobless claims lessens due to contracting offerings in employment. American economy stagnates together with the Eurozone moving into recession at highest unemployment in past 15-year record. UK housing persists and slows down though policymakers still believe economic recovery is underway.

The US Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. reported its business index decreased to 56.2 in April from prior month 62.2 and indicated slowdown in manufacturing. Another service index from this same institution on non-manufacturing sectors slid to a 4-month low 53.5 from 56 in March. Both readings indicated the slowdown in economic recovery.

The American consumer spending increased 0.3 percent in March that was same as forecast while factory orders fell 1.5 percent after a revised 1.1 percent gain in February. On Thursday, jobless claims dropped 27,000 to 365,000 in the week ended 28 April signaling more people have given up in looking for jobs.

On Friday, the US payrolls climbed 115,000 in April, making the smallest gain in last 6 months, after a revised 154,000 gain in March. Unemployment remained at 8.1 percent with stagnated personal earnings, signaling the cool down in current recovery.

In Eurozone, the Portuguese government will reduce its primary spending limit by 3.2 percent in 2013 and lower the limit for total spending by 2.1 percent, in an effort to curb debt and regain foothold in bonds markets. Following Spain, the 17-nations have its twelfth member country decaling recession with progressive 2 quarters of decline in GDP data.

Eurozone unemployment rose to 10.9 percent in March from 10.8 percent in February, showing deepening slump at 15-year record high. Manufacturing continues to decline when Market Economics reported the index fell to 45.9 in April, a 34-month low, from 47.7 in March. European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers said would reserve their rights to add stimulus if necessary.

Halifax Ltd said UK housing prices dropped 2.4 percent from March, the largest monthly decline since September 2010, to an average GBP159,883 (USD258,700) in April. Bank of England (BOE) governors said mortgage approvals increased in March with new home buyers emerging while consumer confidence held unchanged, thus reiterated unlikely to fall into recession. So far, policymakers held their stimulus target at GBP325 billion since April and kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY has been hovering at 80.00 benchmarks with buying interest in market. This week, we reckon the market will be supported at 79.30 – 79.50 regions though the trend will be trading sideways at bottom zone. Resistance lies at 80.80 levels which will narrow the trend down to test the bottom area. The long-term outlook for this market remains bullish if the aforementioned support can hold well!

EUR/USD has begun to soften last week from the top resistance emerging at 1.3200 – 1.3250 regions. This week, the trend will continue to be bearish if there is no further fundamental influence from human’s remarks. The initial support lies at 1.3000 benchmarks which may break to test lower grounds at 1.2850 levels. Abandon your short-view if the trend pierces above 1.3200 resistances.

GBP/USD traded from 1.6150 – 1.6300 ranges last week with-holding market strength. We expect some support to emerge at 1.6100 regions that will channel the market trend into sideways in coming week. Basically, we foresee the consolidation will occur from 1.6100 – 1.6300 in near future. Abandon your long-view if the trend breaks ground at 1.6100 supports.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA).   Receive the latest blog posts via your Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices sank to 100.00 levels as we predicted last week from our prone bias to bearishness. This week, we reckon resistance will emerge at 100.70 – 101.00 regions for many long traders to unwind their positions. The market might probably drill lower to attempt the 95.50 supports before short-covering surfaces. Therefore, we expect the range to stretch from 95.00 – 101.00 regions in coming week.

Gold

Gold has adhered to the bearish outlook of technical trend since it could not conquer above the 1650.00 resistance. Market fizzled out at 16710.00 regions last week from slowdown in European economy and cooling down in U.S. recovery. This week, we reckon the trend will be capped at 1650.00 resistances and likely will sink to test the consecutive supports at S1 – 1670.00 and S2 – 1580.00 areas.

Silver

Silver prices dipped briefly below 30.00 benchmarks last week but closed at 30.33 for the weekend. This week, the market will face big challenge since 31.00 resistances need to be violated in order to re-instate the bullish sentiment. If the market dips beneath 30.00 again, the bears might sink lower to 28.50 regions before we expect some bargain-hunting will emerge.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Derivatives closed lower on weekly basis while affected by deepening Euro debt crisis and plunging Crude prices. The July delivery contract closed at 3358 on Friday with overall market turnover more than 30000 contracts. This week, we foresee the market trend will remain weak and likely test 3250 support target. Resistance lies at 3550 regions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is founder and principal consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). He was previously attached with Bankers Trust Futures Inc, Barclays ZW Futures and Smith Barney Shearson (Citigroup) Inc. He is also an active trader and author of 8 Ways to Invest In China’s Emerging Markets. Wong is also columnist for The Star, The Borneo Post in East Malaysia, The Busy Weekly, The Trader’s Journal, The Forex Journal, The Pulses, The Analysts and Capital Asia magazine. He is a regular speaker on trading topics as well as Master Speaker for the annual Asia Traders and Investors Convention (ATIC). Sign-up to receive newest posts in your Inbox or RSS

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

In the infographic below we list 19 futures contracts that are the popular choice for many futures traders.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude was making small range of consolidation last week while capped below 106.00 resistances. This week, breaking and settling above 106.00 levels will attempt 108.50 levels if global demands rise unexpectedly. Otherwise, the technical outlook of natural strength is still prone to weakness that may sink to 100.00 benchmarks. Shorting from topside prices above 105.00 levels may be a better trading opinion with well-controlled risk management.

Gold

Gold is reacting to Bernanke’s remarks of possible QE3 policy while market trend is still digesting it in bullish sentiment. The market climbed above EMA200 and 1650.00 levels last week which signaled strong buying interest. This week, it will be a great challenge to see if the bulls can pierce above 1680.00 resistances for continual uptrend. Otherwise, we speculate the trend is still uncertain and may subject to fundamental news.

Silver

Silver prices bounced up from last week’s low 29.96 with much bargain hunting and reacting to weaker dollar. This week, we will observe the support at 30.00 benchmarks while resistance building up at 32.00 levels. The new market direction will initiate only after the trend moves beyond any side of these extremes. No clue of the imminent trend as the fundamental news has been playing lead role recently in market.

Crude Palm Oil

FCPO in Bursa Malaysia ended lower on continual liquidation, looming global outlook and contracting production. The July delivery contract closed at 3505 while consolidating in sideways. This week, we reckon the bear may take over the market sentiment and drive the prices lower. The support rests at S1 – 3430 which breaking beneath here will aim at next lower support S2 – 3350 regions. Topside selling pressure will emerge strongly once it climbs up to 3550 levels.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is founder and principal consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). He was previously attached with Bankers Trust Futures Inc, Barclays ZW Futures and Smith Barney Shearson (Citigroup) Inc. He is also an active trader and author of 8 Ways to Invest In China’s Emerging Markets. Wong is also columnist for The Star, The Borneo Post in East Malaysia, The Busy Weekly, The Trader’s Journal, The Forex Journal, The Pulses, The Analysts and Capital Asia magazine. He is a regular speaker on trading topics as well as Master Speaker for the annual Asia Traders and Investors Convention (ATIC). Sign-up to receive newest posts in your Inbox or RSS

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Currency Market Observations – 30 Apr 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US economy deteriorates in contracting new home sales and durable goods orders. FED chairman Bernanke reiterates of aiming to support with more stimulus programs while keeping interest rates at bay. Eurozone debts rise to record high in 2011 since it started and Spain is downgraded in credit rating. UK slips into recession after GDP for Q1 slid 0.2 percent.

The US new home sales rose to 328,000 annual rates, making a 7.1 percent decline from revised rising figure of 353,000 pace in February. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence dropped to 69.7 in April from prior month 70.2. Amid shedding confidence of investors, FED Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is on standby mode to add more stimulus if necessary even while leaving the existing low interest policy. He also upgrades the view of the economy for this year that verbally brought the DJIA stock higher last week.

The US orders for durable goods fell in March by most in 3 years by 4.2 percent, more than forecast and the biggest decrease since January 2009. Another report on existing home sales rose 4.1 percent to 101.4, probably due to lower prices and interest rates of used homes that lured buyers into property markets.

Japan’s consumer prices rose in March with core prices increased 0.2 percent from a year earlier. On Friday, Bank of Japan expanded its stimulus program by another additional JPY10 trillion (USD124 billion) after Spain was downgraded by S&P’s agency on previous day. This will amount to JPY40 trillion funds before June 2013 from the current bonds-purchase program worth 30 trillion.

Debt of the euro region rose last year to the highest record since the single currency commenced. European Union states the total national debts has climbed to 87.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2011 from 85.3 percent the previous year.

Last week, Standard & Poor’s agency cut the Spain’s sovereign credit rating to BBB+ from A. Yields on 10-year Spanish bonds surpassed 6 percent in April and has been hovering around this level, thus worrying investors that the borrowing costs may soon need prompt bailouts just like Greece, Ireland and Portugal. However, Spanish government rules out the possibility and stresses their banks are still fully funded.

UK slipped back into fear of recession after the Q1 GDP slid 0.2 percent. Nationwide Building Society said its consumer confidence index rose to a nine-month high of 53 in March from 44 in February but could be short-lived.

Another separate report on UK consumer confidence was unchanged this month from March by holding at minus 31. Prime Minister David Cameron expresses disappointment of decline in growth though austerity measures have taken effects.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY is still basically threading between 80.00 – 81.50 regions. The trend is making technical consolidation but prone to weakness, unless some solid stimulus is injected into the market by BOJ policymakers for jacking up the prices. This week, we foresee the trend will decline to slightly lower area in 79.50 levels where bargain hunting will begin.

EUR/USD has come to our predicted area around 1.3250 regions as mentioned last week. This week, we expect the resistance to act strong at 1.3300 levels that will drive the prices back to 1.3050 regions for consolidation. Abandon your short-view if the bulls break above 1.3300 resistances.

GBP/USD has conquered above 1.6200 that we forecast the probability of this violation last week. The strength will remain strong this week unless it turns down beneath 1.6150 supports. Topside target may aim at 1.6400 regions before the bulls take a breather!

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA).   Receive the latest blog posts via your Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Currency Market Observations – 23 Apr 2012

Fundamental Outlook

The US sees bumpy recovery in housing markets though retail sales pick up unexpectedly. Euro-debt fears surface again after Spanish yield soared to above 6.0 percent. G20 leaders met in Washington last week and warned Euro financial ministers to fix this viral issue urgently. UK begins to see small economic recovery but policymakers persist in holding on to stimulus program.

The US retail sales rose more than forecast in March by 0.8 percent gain and almost three times above median forecast. National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence decreased to 25 this month from 28 in March. Another report on housing starts slid 5.8 percent in March to a 654,000 annual rate, indicating tough road to housing recovery.

The US factories dropped 0.2 percent in March for the first time in four months as manufacturing cooled down. Jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 386,000 in the week ended April 14 from a revised 388,000. Existing home sales dropped 2.6 percent in March to a 4.48 million annual rate from 4.6 million in February.

Japan’s overseas shipments rose 5.9 percent in March from a year earlier, exceeding forecast. The trade deficit was JPY82.6 billion (USD1 billion), narrowed down to lesser than forecast but data probably was distorted due to earthquake in March 2011.

European officials met in G20 meeting in Washington. Market rekindles fear in euro-debt woes after Spanish 10-year bonds yield climbed to 6.16 percent, the highest level since December. Italian yields for same maturity bonds also jumped to 5.56 percent.

In Germany, growth is sound and vibrant that has injected strength in euro value despite negativity news in debt woes. ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its investors’ confidence increased to 23.4 in April from last month 22.3. The report from Ifo institute’s business climate index that measures business confidence also rose for a sixth straight month to 109.9 in April from prior month 109.8.

The UK consumer prices rose 3.5 percent in March from a year earlier, up from 3.4 percent in February. Core prices accelerated to 2.5 percent. Jobless claims rose by 3,600 from February to 1.61 million while unemployment fell to 8.3 percent in the quarter through February from a 16-year high of 8.4 percent. Retail sales rose fastest in March over past 12 months when purchases including auto fuel gained 1.8 percent from February.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY has been moving largely from 80.50 to 82.00 regions as forecast last week. The market is threading sideway for consolidation and we reckon it will narrow inside this band for another few weeks. Traders may trade from extreme ends while control the loss at 80.30 and 82.20 levels.

EUR/USD pulled up to above 1.3200 resistances on Friday against the strong selling sentiment in earlier week. Fundamentals factors have manipulated the market into reversal uptrend while short traders should not sit on stubborn losses. This week, we reckon the resistance will be set at 1.3260 levels that breaking above it will initiate a new bullish trend. Support has risen to 1.3050 regions which will resume the bears only if this is violated!

GBP/USD broke above our resistance identified at 1.6000 and began climbing higher. This week, we foresee the market will challenge the 1.6200 resistances but still uncertain if the bulls can charge higher than here. The support remains at 1.6000 levels.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA).   Receive the latest blog posts via your Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.