The Dow Jones markets and Asia equities have been climbing in bullish sentiments due to improvement in U.S. economy. FED Chairman reiterates of continual stimulus at USD85 Billion monthly and low interest rates to suppress the unemployment rate below 6.5 percent. The USD/JPY rate also crosses above 100.00 benchmarks in 4-year record and weakening Yen helps in lifting stocks in Asia hours. We foresee regional stock markets will continue in bullish trends in coming week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices have behaved in resilient patterns at 96.00 areas. Despite higher Dollar, this market has been staying strong due to tremendous cut in inventory holdings. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) reports the Crude inventory for week ended 4 May contracted to 200,000 barrels and much below the expectation of 2.1 Million barrels. This week, reckon the market will trend form 93.00 – 98.00 ranges with some bullish signs expected to be seen in early week.

Gold

Gold prices have faced selling pressure amid flight to quality and also rising Dollar. This week, we foresee the resistance will act strong at 1450.00 – 1455.00 regions while bears will emerge to liquidate losses from previous tops. As the stock markets climb higher, the yellow metal will descend further to our target prices identified at T1 – 1410.00 and T2 – 1380.00. Abandon your short-view if the market penetrates above 1460.00 levels.

Silver

Silver prices have been trading in narrow range despite the Gold prices melted down. Technically, we foresee the market may do some recovery to 25.50 levels if yellow metal could see a consolidation in early week. Market sentiment is still prone to weakness after every retracement pull up as previous metals are facing liquidation to equities now. The support will remain at 22.50 regions in case the bears sell down again.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives recovers on higher grounds. The July contract closed at 2320 on last Friday amid short-coverings. This week, the trend is likely to stay firm with support coming in at 2250 regions. Topside potential may climb to 2400 levels once the immediate resistance breaks at 2340 areas.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Currency Market Observations – 13 May 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. stock markets stay in strong sentiment amid job growth recovery in economy. Bernanke reassures of low interest rates and monthly stimulus so long as unemployment floats above 6.5 percent. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi stresses again that policymakers are prepared to cut rate further should economy deteriorate. However, analysts remain dubious and foresee rates will remain steady till at least 2015.

The U.S. jobless benefits claimed by unemployed citizens decreased by 4,000 to 323,000 in the week ended 4 May. The rise in recent payrolls and contractions in claims prove quantitative easing policy taking effects. On Friday, FED Chairman Bernanke said that policymakers will remain USD85 Billion monthly stimulus and keep rates at record low so long as unemployment stays above 6.5 percent.

The U.S. budget surplus increased to USD112.9 billion in April, the biggest since April 2008, from USD59.1 billion a year earlier. Dow Jones markets have been trending in bullish interest throughout the whole week amid economic recovery.

China records a trade balance of USD18.16 Billion in April that is bigger than median forecast at USD15.5 Billion. The inflation rose 2.4 percent on year-on-year basis from last April. Last week, both reports helped to lift Asia stock markets in tandem with rising American equities.

Last week, the Japanese Yen fell beyond 101.00 per dollar for the first time in past 4 years. The weakening Yen boosts Nikkei 225 Average Index to make new highs above 14,600 levels while challenging the last top in June 2008. As regional equities and Dollar index jumps further, commodities slide in flight of funds to quality prices.

In early May, ECB cut its benchmark rate to a record low of 0.5 percent and extended unlimited liquidity supply to euro-region banks until mid-2014. President Mario Draghi reiterates that policymakers to reduce rates further and even see negative deposit rates in order to pull Europe out of recession. However, many market analysts voiced disbelief in more cutting action.

U.K. industrial output rose 0.7 percent in March and jumped more than three times above median forecast. Another separate report on construction output in Q1 contracted to lowest record in 14-year record by 2.4 percent decline. In the same period, trade deficit has shown improvement in goods narrowed to GBP26.4 Billion from GBP27.1 Billion.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY has finally broken above 100.00 benchmarks which turn into strong support now. Technically, we reckon the trend will continue to run up amid weakening Yen. The upside target lies at 106.50 over weeks and traders are advised to plan long entry on draw down retracements.

EUR/USD has begun to turn down in selling sentiment after 1.3150 resistances could not be violated. This week, we expect the market to make initial consolidation on first few days at 1.3050 – 1.3080 regions then follow by another downfall. In our studies, the trend may reach 1.2800 targets as Dollar begins to strengthen against Euro.

GBP/USD also moves in bearish trend amid rising Dollar. This week, we reckon the market will consolidate at 1.5450 – 1.5480 resistances before another slide entail. The first target at 1.5200 is within reach in case market bears emerge again. Abandon your short-view if the market pierces above 1.5500 resistances.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Currency Market Observations – 6 May 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. consumer spending and consumer confidence both rise in optimism. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement shows continual supports to monthly stimulus but at weaker voice by U.S. policymakers. European Central Bank (ECB) cuts rates by 25 basis points and lifts stock markets in general sentiment. Market analyst feel the ECB should have reduced half a percent to be more adamant in salvaging market slowdown.

The U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2 percent in March after a 0.7 percent increase the prior month. Another report on Conference Board’s sentiment index shows consumer confidence climbed to 68.1 in April and exceeding the highest estimate. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities rose 9.3 percent in February from a year ago, proving recovery in housing slump.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 50.7 in April from the prior period’s 51.3. On Thursday morning, Federal Reserve released its FOMC statement saying policymakers will maintain monthly purchase of USD85 billion in bonds program but no more new plans added.

Separately, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in March after trade gap shrank 11 percent to USD38.8 billion from a revised prior month USD43.6 billion. Jobless claims fell by 18,000 to 324,000 in the week ended April 27, indicating mild job market recovery.

On Friday, the American payrolls expanded at 165,000 workers in April following a revised 138,000 increase in March. Unemployment hit 4-year low record at 7.5 percent, taking effect from federal budget cuts. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached 15,000 for the first time in history amid falling Dollar index (USDX).

Japan’s industrial production climbed 0.2 percent in March and less than median forecast, amid global contraction in demands. Yen recedes against Dollar from 97.00 to 99.00 levels on Friday after the U.S. payrolls increased.

An index in the Euro area that measures economic confidence shed to 88.6 in April from prior month 90.1, affected by slowdown amid recession. Annual inflation rate dipped to 1.2 percent in April and melted down from previous 1.7 percent. March unemployment rate jumped to 12.1 percent and highest since 1995 record.

The inflation in Germany, largest economy in Eurozone, slid to 1.1 percent from 1.8 percent in March indicating lowest in past 2.5 years. In the bid rate meeting held on last Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent as expected. President Draghi stresses policymakers will be open to negative deposit rate while market analysts feel more rate should be introduced.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY recovers from intra-week low 97.01 to 99.00 levels on Friday. Technically, we reckon the market is prone to break above 100.00 benchmarks in coming week if DJIA can lead the bullish trend. Support is sitting firmly at 97.00 now while crossing above 100.00 will aim for 101.50 targets.

EUR/USD fizzled out from 1.3243 highs last week but still sits well at 1.3040 supports. This week, we forecast the market will consolidate within this range initially before declining further to test 1.2950 regions. Picking short from top retracement may be better strategy unless the trend pierces above 1.3250 resistances.

GBP/USD seems to be topping off 1.5600 levels while resisted by the EMA200 selling pressures. This week, we predict the trend will be more prone to drop at 1.5400 regions for a technical drawdown. However, breaking above 1.5630 is unfavorable for shorting and risk need to be managed.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

The U.S. non-farm payroll for April grew 165,000 while unemployment hit 4-year low at 7.5 percent. Dow Jones Average Index (DJIA) crossed above 15,000 benchmarks for the first time amid falling U.S treasuries. Last Thursday, the Federal Reserve released its FOMC statement in maintaining the monthly stimulus of USD85 Billion with no added surprise. In Eurozone, the central bank cut 25 basis points and spiked the stock markets. Hence, we foresee Asia stock markets will be resilient in bullish trend in coming week.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices broke above previous resistance at 94.80 levels and reached 96.00 highs on Friday. The better-than-expected U.S. payroll data boosted the stock market as well as commodity prices on high bands. This week, it is hard to predict the probable trend but we reckon the range may move from 92.50 – 97.50 regions. In any case, the continual strength in DJIA trend in climbing higher may help to lift the crude prices on higher demands if U.S. economic recovery persists.

Gold

Gold prices pulled up to 1488.00 regions on Friday and fell by reacting to higher treasuries yields. This week, we reckon the market is preparing to see lower grounds so long as the immediate resistance at 1490.00 levels is not violated. On moving down, we are expecting the downtrend to test 1440.00 as our immediate target and subsequent to 1400.00 as secondary targets. In overall, Gold prices are still very mixed in market but prone to be trading in large consolidation below 1500.00 benchmarks for a while.

Silver

Silver prices are rather weak as the metal has been moving from 23.20 – 24.60 regions. This week, we foresee the market may consolidate in early part of the week before declining towards Friday. The overall sentiment is bearish while it is capped at 24.50 resistances. Weak trend is reinforced by rising Gold/Silver ratio above 60 levels. Downside target may return to 23.00 areas or even lower depending on the leading trend of Gold.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed on low side at 2254 in July delivery contract on Friday. The market was suppressed down by weaker service index in China and dropping Soybean oil demands. This week, the market may draw down further to 2210 before we foresee bargain-hunting emerges. Topside resistance caps at 2340.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Currency Market Observations – 15 April 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. shows unstable recovery from below expected gain Q1 despite mild demand in housing markets have grown. Japan central bank meeting disappoints traders with no commitment in more stimuli and spikes Yen rise. The Britain avoids a triple recession after the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) rose 0.3 percent in Q1.

The U.S. existing home sales slid 0.6 percent in March to 4.92 million annual rates. Another report shows new home sales in rose 1.5 percent to a 417,000 annual pace, above median forecast. Demands for durable goods slumped in March by most in past 7 months when bookings fell 5.7 percent after a revised 4.3 percent gain the prior month.

The U.S. jobless claims fell 16,000 in the week ended April 20 to 339,000, the lowest since 9 March. On Friday, the GDP for first quarter was reported with a gain of 2.5 percent annual rate but still under forecast. Dow Jones markets took a breather from receding at almost historical high regions.

Last week, market analysts widely expected the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers would prepare to boost its inflation but resulted in disappointment. The inflation slid 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier and higher than forecast. On Friday, policymakers held central bank meeting but showed no commitment in more stimulus despite they reassured to boost money supply if needed.

Yen rose against Dollar before the weekend and took down prices on general commodities. The USD/JPY did not clear above 100.00 benchmarks as widely expected. Traders look forward to U.S. FOMC and European Central Bank (ECB) in coming week for more fundamental factors to move markets.

German business confidence measured by Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index declined to 104.4 from 106.7 in March. Some analysts expect ECB to cut its key interest rate in coming bid rate meeting on this Thursday.

The Markit Economics in London reports a composite index based in both manufacturing and services stays at 46.5 in April, shrinking below 50 levels for a fifteen month. On Thursday, GDP for first quarter rose 0.3 percent and above median forecast, thus avoided a triple-recession in British economy.

Pound recovered to higher grounds to 1.5500 regions as we predicted previously after the rise in U.K. growth. The Bank of England (BOE) say policymakers will extend cheaper loans for another year to aid small medium enterprises, aiming to enhance 9-month-old program to stimulate growth.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY fell from 99.30 areas to 97.55 lows on Friday after BOJ meeting. We reckon the market needs another boosting opportunity in coming week to reverse the trend upwards. Technically, we foresee good buying opportunity at 96.30 – 96.80 areas in coming week for reversing up into buying interest. Abandon your long-view if the market penetrates below 96.00 levels.

EUR/USD is lacking strength though the market is still moving in technical consolidation. This week, we reckon the trend may either stay in tight range from 1.3000 -1.3200 regions or plunging into the lower band of 1.2850 – 1.3000 regions. It will take market fundamental factors to decide the direction of the trend without much clue now.

GBP/USD recovers in bullish trend after GDP improved in Q1. For past 2 weeks, we forecast the trend might climb to 1.5500 targets as it is now. This week, we reckon breaking above 1.5550 levels may continue to reach up till 1.5730 levels while the failure to clear above 1.5550 will retrace down to 1.5300 regions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Last Friday, the Bank of Japan held its central meeting and reiterated its support to boost money supply. However, no finite commitment and directive for next stimulus were indicated, hence bludgeoned the USD/JPY market amid rising yen value. The U.S. Commerce Department also reported growth in first quarter grew 2.5 percent annual rate but still under forecast. Dow Jones markets and commodities across the board landed on lower prices amid selling sentiments.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices were making technical recovery while following the Gold trend in last week’s ascension. This week, we foresee the market will be topped at 95.00 resistances and moving down is more likely to occur for profit-taking. The Crude trend may trade weaker till 90.00 benchmarks if Gold prices lead the softer trend. Abandon your short-view if the trend pierces above 95.00 resistances.

Gold

Gold prices reached intraweek highs at 1485.00 regions and slumped on Friday to 1448.00 areas. Technically, we reckon the upward correction has ended and may be heading down in coming week. Moving forward, we expect the prices will re-test 1400.00 benchmarks for while waiting for U.S. monetary policy in coming FOMC statement. However, the unlikely breaking above 1485.00 resistances might surge higher to 1510.00 targets.

Silver

Silver prices hit 24.837 highs last week following technical recovery in general commodities. The market closed at 23.961 with reversal sign downwards for coming week. Technically, we expect the resistances to emerge at 25.300 regions if the bulls climb further but downside sinking to 22.5000 levels will be possible upon weakening demands. This week, pay attention to mid-week fundamentals at bid rate meeting from European Central Bank on Thursday that may move metal prices.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended closed at slightly optimism while tracking all other recovery in oil commodities. The market has stood well at 2250 supports as we expected and will continue to defend this buying interest if no negative news emerges further. The July contract closed at 2308 on Friday with buying sentiment supported by strong open interest. This week, we expect the market will sit on 2250 supports and continue to rise at 2400 – 2420 regions as our targets.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Currency Market Observations – 22 April 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. economy remains little changed with increasing housing starts amid contracting inflation. G20 meeting begins with Yen devaluing further as no leader protests against currency weakening in Japan. China sees growth at less than 8 percent for 4 consecutive quarters that hammer the commodity demands.

The U.S. National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence dropped to 42 in April from prior month 44, the lowest since October. Housing starts for March climbed 7 percent to a 1.04 million annual and recovered to highest record since June 2008. Another report shows consumer price index shed 0.2 percent after 0.7 gains in February, due to price drop in energies. Core reading rose 0.1 percent and less than forecast.

The U.S. Federal Reserve says the U.S. economic expansion remains “moderate” amid gains in manufacturing, housing. Weekly jobless claims increased 4,000 to 352,000 in the week ended 13 April with little change.

China reports its GDP for Q1 grew 7.7 percent from a year earlier, marking a fourth consecutive gain at less than 8 percent in past decade. Last week, commodities tumbled to mostly intra-year lows following China’s report.

The recent slump in gold prices may lead policymakers to pursue more easing stimulus for driving up commodity prices. The International Monetary Policy (IMF) trims the global growth forecast and urges European policymakers to use “aggressive” monetary policy as recovery in European regions lags behind the rest of the world.

Japan’s overseas shipment in March rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier and above estimate. Trade shortfall was JPY362.4 billion (USD3.7 billion) from JPY777.5 billion in February, with improvement taking effect from lower Yen value.

The Japanese Yen has been falling for a fourth day against the dollar after the Group of 20 gave no comment on Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) weakening policy. Analysts interpret the silent permission as leeway to more decline in Yen value since it may not contravene global currency devaluation.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi comments the economic situation in the 17-nations remains no improvement since the last meeting on 4 April. Policymakers predict the euro-area economy will shrink 0.5 percent this year before growing 1 percent in 2014.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY closed at 99.50 for the weekend while reversing up amid G20 meeting. The market is now sitting at 97.30 supports with emerging buying interest that might pierce above 100.00 benchmarks soon. This week, we foresee the fundamental factors will play essential part to lead the trend into consolidation from 97.30 – 100.00 regions or breaking above 100.00 to reach for 101.50 targets.

EUR/USD topped 1.3201 last week and fell. Technically, the market may be turning down this week if the trend does not penetrate above 1.3200 resistances again. This week, the market might consolidate sideways in first few days inside 1.3020 – 1.3150 ranges but anytime breaking below 1.3000 could initiate a new selling force in market. We reckon reversing below 1.3000 will land at 1.2900 supports.

GBP/USD has been trading from 1.5210 – 1.5410 ranges last week. The trend needs to penetrate below 1.5200 supports this week before we could see 1.5050 targets. Prior to this, there may be small sideways that will gain at 1.5300 – 1.5350 tops during early part of this week.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices reached 85.61 lows last week and met bargain hunting from the bottoms. This week, we reckon the trend will trade from 86.00 – 89.00 ranges in consolidation. Moving up above 89.00 immediate resistances may initiate further recovery to 90.20 targets. Technically, we expect the crude demands to stay at this bottom range for few weeks in tandem with fundamental influence from Saudi Arab cutting oil supply. China’s slowdown adds onto the selling pressure.

Gold

Gold prices hit 1321.00 bottoms before it closed at 1399.00 levels on Friday. The market was in oversold sentiments from panic selling last week but has been slowing down amid technical recovery. This week, we reckon the market will consolidate around 1410.00 regions again before dropping back to 1350.00 levels. Breaking above 1425.00 resistances could new buying interest to attempt 1455.00 targets.

Silver

Silver prices reached 29-month low at 21.983 last week and closed at 23.250 on Friday. The market has made only little recovery compared to Gold prices. This week, we foresee some selling resistances will build up at 24.000 while penetrating above it may gain at 25.400 levels. Downside support must hold at 22.000 regions lest the bears will attempt lower grounds should general commodity trend face more selling pressures.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives dropped last week amid contraction in general commodity prices. The July contract closed at 2294 on Friday after testing the 2264 lows. Much selling pressures came from China’s data after the growth was read as sign of slowdown in Asia. This week, we reckon the trend will sit well on 2250 supports while technical recover may aim at 2350 regions. Abandon your long-view if the market breaks below 2250 supports.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Last Friday, Gold prices fell to lowest at 1492.00 regions since June 2011. The market tumbled as investors abandoned the yellow metal as safe haven after Dow Jones markets resumed to new historical highs at 14,887 levels and Dollar strengthened. WTI Crude prices plunged due to weaker US retail sales and a drag down in Producer Price Index.

Crude Oil

WTI Crude prices crossed down below the EMA200 support line on Friday and reached 90.28 lows. Technically, the market is resisted at 92.50 regions now and might land in weaker demands for this week. The contracting demands in US economy and increasing supply from Saudi Arabia are acting simultaneously to suppress the prices lower. Support is identified at 88.70 regions in case the bears engulf the market.

Gold

Gold prices were floating to almost 1590.00 regions during middle last week but drove down rapidly on Friday. The fast plunging trend triggered selling stops in the markets and rolled down to 1473.00 bottoms while closing at this area. This week, we predict the selling pressure will heavily cap at 1510.00 levels while drilling lower is possible to complete at 1450.00 regions. Breaking beneath 1450.00 supports could land at 1430.00 ultimate supports if panic selling emerges from topside. The bearish trend could be triggered from flight interest into buying new highs in Dow Jones stocks.

Silver

Silver prices plunged on Friday following rapid liquidation of Gold. The market closed at 10-month low amid heavy selling pressure on Friday late session. This week, we foresee the trend will drive lower to 24.00 targets since it has broken the weekly support at 27.20 levels. However, we would expect some bargain hunting to arise at 24.00 regions and below, unless the global fundamental news turn negative for short-term buying. Resistance is spotted at 26.50 levels. Stay observant for the international news from European markets this week.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower on weekly basis while demands contracted continually. General prices of commodities declined last week and the latest bird flu outbreak in China also sent impact to lesser demands in palm oil. The newly switched-over of active month in July contract closed at 2345. This week, we predict the market trend may continue to drop further if no positive news jump starts the market. Technically, we expect the market to test 2300 regions while resistance remains at 2400 regions. Bargain hunting will begin at 2250 once 2300 supports give way.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

Currency Market Observations – 15 April 2013

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index creates new high after the release of FOMC minutes. Jobless claims fall while due to Easter holiday. Japanese Yen continues in devaluation after recent stimulus and central bank governor Kuroda reiterates his aim to achieve 2 percent inflation. Europe is quite amid new concerns of rising Greece’s unemployment.

In the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in March, FED officials said central bank should consider scaling down or terminate the stimulus by year-end. Bernanke stressed that necessary action will be taken to ensure smooth recovery in payrolls which is ironical to the meager gain of 88,000 jobs in March and way below expectation.

The US jobless claims decreased by 42,000 to 346,000 in the week ended April 6, from a revised 388,000. Analysts believe the contraction of claims were probably due to Easter Holiday seasons and may increase in coming weeks.

On Friday, US Commerce Department reported the retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.4 percent in March, at highest record in past nine months. Producer price index dropped 0.6 percent vs. a 0.7 percent gain in February due to slump in energy prices. Stock prices landed softer from intraday week high at 14,887 levels.

Japan’s central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda has injected the new stimulus since a week ago and Yen moves in devaluation to almost 100.00 benchmarks against US Dollar. Despite many doubts in market, Kuroda stresses in confidence in achieving a 2 percent inflation target as the recovery sets in.

German exports, after seasonally adjusted, contracted 1.5 percent in February compared to 1.3 percent gain in previous month. Greece’s unemployment rate jumped to record 27.2 percent in January from prior month 25.7 percent. The country has entered into its sixth year of economic downturn.

The euro-area industrial output expanded more than median forecast in February as it rose 0.4 percent. The euro-zone economy is struggling to regain momentum after five quarters of contraction. Despite some worries rekindle in Eurozone of persistent recession, Euro currency floated above 1.3000 levels against Dollar last week to counter the fast rising Dollar value in Asia due to Yen devaluation. Market analysts observe the beginning of new currency war as all major economies favor weak currency policy.

In UK markets, the RICS reported the British housing price index gained in March to minus 1 from prior month minus 7. Outlook for property demands have improved as bargain hunters search for good deals. Bank of England (BOE) officials predict the consumer prices will climb while economic growth may scaled backwards in 2013. Forecast reports show the inflation will average at 2.8 percent gain but Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will probably rise by 0.8 percent, compared with a previous forecast of 1 percent.

Technical Forecast

USD/JPY fell short below 100.00 benchmarks last week and receded to 99.00 regions before weekend. This week, we reckon the market trend may drive down for technical correction at 97.50 areas to cover the price-gap on day-chart. In case the bulls resume and pierce above 100.00 benchmarks successfully, then we shall expect the topside target to aim at 101.50 regions.

EUR/USD reached 1.3138 highs last week as we predicted. The market trend may begin to trade with prone bias to sell-down this week. The range is expected to move from 1.2930 – 1.3150 regions if the bulls fizzle out this week. However, breaking above 1.3150 may climb higher to 1.3260 regions.

GBP/USD is making healthy recovery in technical ascension. This week, we foresee the market trend will trade from 1.5300 – 1.5500 ranges while prone to bullish sentiment. Abandon your long-view if the trend sinks below 1.5300 as this may drive further down to 1.5100 regions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, DAR Wong. Wong is the founder and Principal Consultant of PWForex.com and holds a professional qualification in NASD series 3 and 5 approved by National Futures Association (USA). Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.